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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (13038)	10/12/2008 6:27:29 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71409

you used to agree with me.... back in the day... he was a complete loon desperate to turn his unemployment as a statistician, into a mish style business...i.e. a job. sorry. he's still the same loon making up look alike stories for tv nation viewers of programs like 24 and prison break. i'm worried about you. is it time for an intervention by your friends? <g> ooops friend <g> which would be me of course.

To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (13038)	10/12/2008 6:27:30 PM
From: Giordano Bruno	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71409

That explains why Russia has been hording gold.

To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (13038)	10/12/2008 6:28:41 PM
From: Slumdog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71409

Dec. S&P futures up 31 pts. to 922.......... Edit: Dec. Gold down $7.90 to $851.10................

To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (13038)	10/12/2008 6:32:21 PM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	1 Recommendation Respond to of 71409

MORGAN STANLEY is FRIGGEN DOOMED-From Dave in Denver, one of THE BEST out there among those who analyze the financial market scene... (Bill, I hope you print this because it's very realistic and my numbers are good. My work is, if anything, on the low side because we really need to see the inside books. We know Mitsubishi saw them and ran). The REAL number that Morgan Stanley needs? Morgan Stanley is a walking corpse being kept alive by the hope of a Treasury bailout that will cost $100's of billions. I just did a cursory anlaysis of MS's balance sheet. "Cursory" because their disclosure sucks. But here's a breakdown as per their latest 10-Q: morganstanley.com They report $420 billion in short term assets and $372 billion in long term investments. Of that: We have no idea what a detailed breakdown of most of the $372 in long term investments look like, but I'm guessing Mitsubishi looked at it and ran. It's probably safe to assume - and I'll ignore the short term investments but rest assured its less than where they carry it. Let's assume the long term stuff needs a 30% markdown. That would be quite generous based on what we're seeing with Lehman's liquidation. A 30% markdown means Morgan Stanley has a $111 biilon asset deficit just with the on-balance-sheet assets. They have a book value of $36 billion. So the net black hole on balance sheet is NEGATIVE $75 billion. Check out the off-balance sheet disclosures: $217 billion in commercial and resi mortgage assets that were transferred off balance sheet because the assessed risk exposure via credit default swaps and other accountning mechanisms was deemed minimal according to GAAP. As we've seen, starting with Enron and moving forward, that's a really bad assumption. They also have $6 trillion in "nominal" derivatives exposure. As we've come to see, "notional" becomes "actual" when there is counter-party default. Lehman, Bear and AIG are terrific examples of $100's of billions of counterparty default exposure. So, is $60 billion enough capital for Morgan Stanley? Looks to me like it's low by several multiples. I'm sure that's why Paulson is looking at nationalizing Morgan Stanley. Does anyone really want their tax money being used to keep Morgan Stanley alive. Just think about your tax money being used to pay huge bonuses to Morgan Stanley employees in a couple months. And guess what? I assure you that Goldman Sachs in right in line behind Morgan Stanley looking for a bailout and I'm sure that's why both of them received the rushed approval by the Fed of bank holding company status. This is going to cost taxpayers trillions. *** lemetropolecafe.com james joyce table