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Technology Stocks : Spectrian Co. (SPCT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Knight who wrote (462)	10/21/1997 4:26:00 PM
From: Sonny Blue	Respond to of 738

James, I agree that short term price action in big stocks like IBM and MSFT do not tell the whole story most of the time, since they are simply too large for anyone to manipulate. But in smaller stocks like SPCT, price action could tell you a lot. That's only if you believe in "insider" trading - which I always do, big or small stocks. To illustrate, let me tell you a story. A year ago, I bought a stock a week before earning announced. I posted a message on AOL to ask if anyone could estimate the earning. A day before the earning announced, one guy (or girl) posted a mysterious message showing the exact earning & revenue amount. I was quite surprised and tried to email this person - but he disappeared totally from then on. Now you think the SEC will investigate this?! By the way, that company went bankrupt a year later. Of course, I may be wrong but the probability is high that someone does know something! (I bought & sold SPCT several times and I am not shorting it!) Sonny

To: James Knight who wrote (462)	10/21/1997 4:32:00 PM
From: Pr-Ac Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 738

<<< How could the price action tell you that the earnings are going to be bad when the company said it was comfortable with estimates? According to your logic IBM and Microsoft should have had bad earnings. The price action was down. People are just scared. I say hogwash to price action. >>> Preach it, Brother! I'm a strong believer in reading the Price/Action of a stock, but in this case I think you're right on. People have been watching this stock go haywire over the last couple weeks (largely due to misinformation which was refuted directly by the company), and they are scared. I think day traders and short sellers are taking advantage of this situation, which is creating tremendous volatility. And after all the movement and volume of today's trading, it was a wash. It's too bad, as a lot of loyal investor's are losing a lot of money because they are confused and making impulsive decisions. It may be that bad news is coming, but it is just as likely that good news lies ahead (probably more likely, given the statements of company representatives). For every example I find of pre-earning's price action indicating the news, I can find another where it was wrong. The problem is that "insider information" can be right or wrong. Depends on its source, and what they are trying to do to the stock price. Scott

To: James Knight who wrote (462)	10/30/1997 5:12:00 PM
From: Sonny Blue	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 738

Message from James Knight on Oct 21 1997 3:22PM EST << How could the price action tell you that the earnings are going to be bad when the company said it was comfortable with estimates? According to your logic IBM and Microsoft should have had bad earnings. The price action was down. People are just scared. I say hogwash to price action. >> James, I hope you now change your mind about my "price action" theory? I bet that the institution stockholders had found out about Spectrian losing out orders from Nortel the week the price dropped from 65 to 50. This news traveled slowly, from one trader to the next. So the price kept heading lower weekly. Later, Smith Barney even gave SPCT an upgrade so their clients could get out at a decent price. Of course, on Oct 23, Spectrian exceeded the earning estimate but that was old news. The market is always looking forward, and if you & I trade stocks on the yesterday news, we are doomed to fail miserably... For an up-to-date example of "price action" theory, please watch DELL stock, this one will go down as bad as SPCT.