Obama Widens Lead as Americans See `Serious' Crisis (Update2)
By Kristin Jensen and Heidi Przybyla
bloomberg.com
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- More than three-quarters of Americans say the U.S. faces a ``serious economic crisis,'' and most voters trust Barack Obama to fix it.
Obama leads Republican presidential nominee John McCain 50 percent to 41 percent among likely voters, a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows. That's more than double Obama's advantage from a month ago. The Democrat's lead holds up when voters choose from a field that includes minor-party candidates and independent Ralph Nader.
With the economy dominant among voter concerns, 56 percent of respondents say they are confident Obama has a plan to deal with the financial crisis. By 50 percent to 41 percent, they don't have similar faith in McCain. Almost half of voters say Obama would do a better job handling the market meltdown and the economy in general.
``People want someone who they feel can get them out of this mess, and Obama comes across as someone who's more hopeful,'' says Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times polling director.
Nita Troutman, a Republican and small-business owner in Clarendon Hills, Illinois, concurs. ``We've got to have some kind of change,'' says Troutman, 54. ``Economic change, change in our health-care system, things that I think Obama is talking about on a more reasonable level.''
Tied to Bush
Troutman, like other participants in the Oct. 10-13 survey, says McCain represents more of the same after a disappointing eight years under George W. Bush, the Republican president she supported twice. More than half of voters in the poll say they think McCain will continue Bush's policies.
Bush's influence is palpable in the survey: 84 percent of Americans say the country is on the wrong track. Only 23 percent approve of the way he's handling his job, less than the level of support for Richard Nixon before he resigned in 1974.
In the three weeks since the last Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll was published, the U.S. Congress passed a $700 billion financial-rescue package and equity markets around the world fell as credit tightened, with the Standard and Poor's 500 Index falling more than 17 percent.
Central banks around the world carried out coordinated interest rate cuts as evidence mounted that the financial crisis may lead to a global recession. In the U.S., borrowing by consumers fell in August by the most on record as lenders shut access to loans, according to data from the Fed.
McCain's Strong Points
While dissatisfaction with Republicans is evident in the presidential race, more voters say McCain has the experience necessary for the White House. They also give him higher marks on handling national security issues.
McCain's running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, doesn't fare as well. Almost half the respondents say Palin is unqualified to be president. And voters who say Palin makes them less likely to support McCain outnumber those who say she makes them more likely to back the Republican.
Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden gets more favorable ratings from voters, and three out of four say the Delaware senator is qualified to be president.
``I don't like Sarah Palin at all,'' said Katy Herbert, 34, a Democrat who works as a teacher in Atlanta and plans to vote for Obama. ``I don't agree with any of her policies.''
Palin's Draw
Republicans had hoped that Palin would motivate Democrats who supported New York Senator Hillary Clinton in the primaries to cross party lines in the general election and side with McCain, an Arizona senator. The poll shows those voters are few and far between: 71 percent of Clinton voters back Obama; 15 percent say they'll vote for McCain.
A separate New York Times/CBS News poll released today found that Obama has a 14 percentage-point lead over McCain among probable voters.
Americans are also leaning toward the Democrats in their congressional races. Asked which party they'd like to win in their local district, voters gave Democrats a 45 percent to 39 percent edge. If that holds, Democrats are likely to pick up additional Senate and House seats in the Nov. 4 elections.
Almost seven of 10 voters surveyed identify the economy as the top priority for the presidential candidates. Of the 77 percent of voters who foresee a serious crisis for the economy, 55 percent favor Obama for president, while 35 percent side with McCain.
When voters are asked who cares more ``about people like you,'' 47 percent point to Obama and 31 percent choose McCain. By a 2-1 margin, voters say Obama is the candidate who could substantially change Washington.
Familiar With Obama
The poll also shows people are getting more comfortable with Obama, 47. Almost three-quarters of respondents say they know enough about the Illinois senator to judge whether he would be a good president. Compared with McCain, twice as many of Obama's supporters describe themselves as ``very enthusiastic,'' and first-time voters give Obama a 24 percentage point advantage.
In the poll, 53 percent of voters say they have a positive feeling about Obama, compared with 47 percent for McCain; 34 percent report having a negative feeling about Obama, compared with 39 percent for McCain. The poll, which surveyed 1,446 registered voters and 1,030 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
McCain, 72, has some bright spots in the poll. Almost half of voters say he'd do the best job of achieving success in Iraq; 38 percent say the same of Obama. McCain wins by a similar margin as the candidate best-suited to deal with an international crisis.
Obama Lacks `Experience'
``I just don't believe that Barack Obama has enough experience,'' says Nancie Ruane, 53, a quality manager in Bellingham, Massachusetts, and a registered independent. ``I've typically been Democratic in the past, but I'm just a little nervous that he doesn't have the experience.''
Like Ruane, a large majority of Americans trust McCain's credentials, with 80 percent in the poll saying he has the right experience to be president. Just under half of respondents say the same of Obama.
The problem for McCain is that, when voters rank the most important priorities for the next president, issues where he has an edge trail their overriding concern about the economy.
``I've been a Republican all my life, but I really have trouble voting Republican this year,'' says Jim Jordan, 69, a retired police officer from Bloomington, Illinois. He compares Obama to a rising star on a baseball team. ``Are we going to do any worse under him than we did under the last eight years?''
To contact the reporters on this story: Kristin Jensen in Washington at kjensen@bloomberg.net; Heidi Przybyla in Washington at hprzybyla@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 15, 2008 09:09 EDT |
