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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Allard who wrote (81062)	10/15/2008 4:31:08 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 197225

I recall a period of time 5 - 10 years ago in Korea (I think?) where cell phone sales did great through a very big downturn in the economy. That really doesnt apply to the current market which is much more heavily dependent on replacement sales. Yes, first time users in India will continue to buy handsets because the utility of the devices is far more than the cost. However, it is very easy for consumers in developed countries to put off buying replacement devices for another six months which would play havok with the device volumes and ASP's. The question is if this is discounted at $36 a share. I think that they are discounting much more than is likely to occur now that a system wide meltdown seems to be off the table. Slacker

To: Michael Allard who wrote (81062)	10/15/2008 5:35:47 PM
From: quartersawyer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197225

"QCOM do in a recession" aside from the good parts, which have been there waiting and well-known, the emergent "slowdown" is founded directly on decreased consumer demand for products and services, right up front in the list of risks and uncertainties to past forward-looking statements. The claim that handsets are staples is limited to a view so panoramic as to blur the bottom line. New, upgraded phones are obviously discretionary and slowed down. Probably network capex too. Currency fluctuations, investments, MediaFlo acceptance rates... all impacted. Not to mention P/E. Great management of the cash could more than make up for downgraded current potentials.