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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q8 who wrote (111958)	10/15/2008 11:51:11 PM
From: Fiscally Conservative	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206181

Fair enough. Have a good night.

To: Q8 who wrote (111958)	10/16/2008 7:34:49 AM
From: ChanceIs	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206181

RE: Kangaroo Tails - Q8 I looked into kangaroo tails. They don't look too unlike dojis. I believe that the TA community looks upon dojis as reversal signals. I don't see this tail pattern you describe, especially "at the opening." The DOW showed what I suppose would be a kangaroo tail for the day. I don't put too much faith in TA. If it worked very well, there would be a host of computer algorithms trading it. The presence of those computers would themselves alter the system. I do look at the technicals. I put maybe 15% weight on them. Mostly I look at corporate, sector and broad economic fundamentals. I don't deny the perceived existence of momentum It can be deemed to have very real basis when large entities (eg hedge funds) have coupled themselves to price movements when highly leveraged. I am talking margin calls here and selling begetting selling. There is a clear causal relationship. There is also the consideration that TA is a self fulfilling prophecy. TA has some predictive power because many believe in it and they have agreed upon a rule book. I suspect that if you got the same people to agree upon a set of different rules, you would see a corresponding pattern of new market behavior emerge. Please discuss the time resolution you applied in making your assertion about the kangaroo tails. Please tell me if the expected behavior then applies within that time domain only, e.g. would you expect the occurrence of a kangaroo tail on a one minute resolution to influence trading fr the next few days, or only the next 60 minutes. Having said all of that, this market frightens me. The patch is way, way oversold. I suspect tht any number of hedge funds have been forced to sell it out, and that opportunistic shorts have entered. Memo to Chris Cox: Yes banks are critical to the economy, but so is oil. Now that you have saved the banks through your short sale ban on bank stocks, won't you please do the same for the oil stocks. Don't think tat is necessary??? Remember drilling stopped in 1998 with $10 crude, and we got $30 crude 30 months later.