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To: chowder who wrote (111979)10/16/2008 10:21:13 AM
From: ChanceIs  Respond to of 206183
 
>>>If something is self fullfilling, then by all means, we should be able to profit from it.<<<

Hi DaBum,

You know I always value your input.

As far as TA goes, I believe in things like resistance and support.

If you start talking on balance volume or movement of institutional money, then I question whether that is TA or not. In my mind, TA is strictly charts. You look at money flow. You are making inferences - sometimes quite justified - about the decisions large fund managers are making. If you can infer that they are buying, then by all means jump on. Now are they buying because the chart tells them to buy or because they just got a huge quarterly influx of cash? Vice-versa with the hedge fund managers who are being hit with huge redemption.

This might harken back to the efficient market hypothesis. Straining to recall here:

1) Weak form - charts only - can't consistently beat averages,

2) Semi-weak form - charts and fundamentals - can get some over average performance,

3) Strong form - you have insider information and a license to steal.

My sense is that you are mostly #1 with a strong component of inferred #3. That is to say that you rely on charts and glean as much insider info/thinking as is possible from a retail investors vantage point.