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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (32493)	10/16/2008 11:12:28 AM
From: peter michaelson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78744

I was there in 1987 too. This is way different. The bull market was just a few years old in 1987. PE's were still low. Buyouts still made sense. Leverage was still moderate. Economic restructuring was still being completed. Now the bull is over 25 - long in the tooth. PE's remain high. Leveraged to the hilt. Must restructure economy - haven't begun yet.

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (32493)	10/16/2008 11:48:37 AM
From: Paul Senior	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78744

Yes, not like '87 when it just went boom and the selling seemed to have stopped after a couple of days. This one reminds me more like mid '60's or '73-'74 -- relentless, as you say. This one much much more worrisome than all the rest. Compared to what I remember experiencing of the past stock drops, p/e's are lower now, interest rates much lower, inflation lower, companies have more cash on balance sheet (so it is said) yet the declines in stocks have been so rapid and so deep. The problems seem to be structural and endemic to all major western countries. And since more people than ever have stocks (retirement plans) and can exit funds quickly, it just becomes so scary and fearful. If the fear is well-placed, and we are indeed going to have one heck of recession which the market, being an anticipatory mechanism, may be saying, stocks could drop further. I am hoping that the stock decline has a lot to do with panic too, and that the worst of the selling is over. But I'm pretty scared.