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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1927)	10/16/2008 1:38:40 PM
From: Perspective	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

Agreed. I would remind everyone that it's OK to simply step aside in places where you do not have a strong advantage. I personally see plenty of overvalued stocks in technically precarious positions, but I also see the possibility of a serious general market rally. So, what do I do? Short the stocks that I see going down more than the market, and hedge with SPY/DIA. Also, I saw a post a few days back (was it Denning? Bonner?) that reminded us that the market should be a tool for our use, not the other we around. When the market is our master, we have lost control. We must be the masters and use it to our advantage. I felt that the risk/reward was pretty darned good fading Monday's rally, so I did. I'm not so sure here, so I'm trying to just stay away from it. Opportunities will come again in the future - maybe not today or tomorrow, maybe not even next week, but they will come. And an investor with the appropriate training will know what to do when the time comes. I'm ecstatic to see yields on corporate debt surging. When we get done deleveraging, there will be the opportunity to lock in nice yields after inflation, and not have to worry nearly as much about stocks. We just have to realize that it could be a long way off, potentially many years. Patience will be required, and there is no rush. `BC

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1927)	10/18/2008 11:14:23 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 3209

If gold completed a large wave up, and this is a retrace of high degree, where is wave 4 of the next lowest degree capitalstool.com

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1927)	10/20/2008 6:01:12 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

Had somebody refer to HNZ and KFT as "cheap" so I had to check it out. They actually haven't given up much of anything yet, and given how much corporate interest rates have soared, they now look pretty expensive. Of course, what we care about here is the chart. Well, what does this look like to you? <g> And this "cheap" one is backtesting the broken TL: I'm pretty short JNJ. If it breaks up through, I'll step aside. But right now I see a lot of DJIA heavies that have worked off oversold conditions. I suppose the beaten down materials stocks could carry the ball forward, but if we need to wiggle around in a wave four some more, "cheap" consumer names like these could be the catalyst. `BC