Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : GOPwinger Lies/Distortions/Omissions/Perversions of Truth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SeachRE who wrote (141634)	10/17/2008 7:16:01 PM
From: Ruffian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 173976

Bradley Effect........stay tuned..........

To: SeachRE who wrote (141634)	10/17/2008 7:30:19 PM
From: Ruffian	1 Recommendation Respond to of 173976

Closer Than You Think? Presidential Polling Data Leave Room for Interpretation One group of voters in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll put John McCain within 2 points of rival Barack Obama while an AP-Yahoo poll out Friday shows McCain's negatives on the rise. Can they both be right? FOXNews.com Friday, October 17, 2008 NOW WE ARE IN THE MARGIN OF ERROR FOR THE FEARED BRADLEY EFFECT!;;;LMAO........... Is the race between John McCain and Barack Obama tightening or is Obama holding his lead? Polls provide conflicting answers. (AP) Barack Obama has warned his supporters that Democrats have a knack for snatching defeat from victory, and a couple of conflicting polls out Friday reinforce the message that with 18 days to go, this presidential election may be closer than many think. A Gallup daily tracking poll out Friday shows Obama leading John McCain among registered voters 49-43 percent while an AP-Yahoo poll also released Friday show Obama's favorability at 57 percent compared to 52 percent for McCain. The 49 percent in the Gallup poll taken from Monday to Wednesday is the first time since the end of September that Obama has dipped below 50 percent. Obama had been as high as 52 percent earlier this month. On top of that in the Gallup poll, "traditional voters" -- those who are more likely to head to the polls -- give Obama 49 percent and McCain 47 percent, well within the 2-point margin of error. And the AP-Yahoo poll out Friday shows that if the election were held today, 44 percent of adults surveyed would choose Obama while 42 percent would pick McCain, though that poll's methodology differs from most other polls. The data showing McCain within two points of Obama shows up on page six of the 29-page poll report. Asked whether The Associated Press buried that result by reporting on the favorability ratings over the head-to-head match-up, Jack Stokes, manager of media relations at The AP, said no. "The answer is two-fold: this is not primarily a horse race poll, and our story chronicled the dramatic changes in ratings of the candidates. Second, we are focusing on likely voters and our likely voter number shows Obama 5 points ahead of McCain," Stokes told FOX News. The AP story accompanying the poll is titled, "Poll: Voters Souring on McCain, Obama Stays Steady." It focuses on the increase in negative views of McCain -- his favorable ratings exceed his unfavorable by just 5 points, down from 21 points last month. Obama's favorable versus unfavorable ratings have grown from a 5-point to a 15-point margin during that time. The poll is also difficult to calibrate in accuracy. The survey is a panel study of adults, which means the same people answer questions over the course of time -- and as a result they are probably following the race more closely than other voters. According to the polling data, interviews were conducted online and drawn from an original sample from a panel of respondents recruited by Knowledge Networks via random sampling of telephone land lines with listed and unlisted numbers. Knowledge Networks provided Web access to panelists who didn't already have it. This is the eighth wave of polling by The AP and Yahoo with this same group of people, and aren't as typical as voters randomly dialed in other surveys. Traditional voters, like likely voters, are the ones who usually show up at the polls. They are determined by whether they say they are voting this year, plus whether they have showed up in past elections. That means traditional voters may represent a more accurate picture of the vote. However, with voter registration up to record numbers this year, it's hard to say who will show up at the polls, and whether traditional voters are an accurate barometer of the direction of the vote. That's part of the reason why the Obama campaign says it is focused solely on battleground states. According to RealClearPolitics, which aggregates polling data, McCain is trailing by 5 points on average in Florida; he's down 1 point in North Carolina and back 8 points in Virginia. "When you look at battleground state by state, Barack Obama already has -- if the election were held today -- more than 270 electoral votes to win," said radio talk show host Bill Press. "And again a 10-point lead in Florida like a 13-point lead in Pennsylvania, a 5-point lead in Ohio ... these are states that John McCain ought to have in and Barack Obama should not even have a shot at." But even battlegrounds are hard to track. For instance, a Florida Research 2000 poll out Friday puts Obama up 4 points over McCain, 49-45 percent. On the same day, a Survey USA poll put McCain 2 points over Obama in Florida 49-47 percent. The 2-point margin in both national polls is the tightest the race has been in some time and with just 18 days left before Election Day, Nov. 4. With the polls so close -- indeed tightening since McCain lost ground to Obama during debate over the economic bailout bill on Capitol Hill -- poll watchers should consider both measures, say political pundits. "If the national number is really 2 points -- I don't think it is, but if the national number tightens -- (battleground) states are going to tighten as well," said National Review editor Rich Lowry. "So I look at the national numbers as a leading indicator." A.B. Stoddard, executive editor at The Hill, said Obama also has to be concerned by the fact that wavering voters in the Democratic primaries broke for Hillary Clinton over him. "If you've resisted Barack Obama for almost two years, you might just get in the car and vote for John McCain. You might just stay home. But John McCain has some voters to get still and that's why I expect a little bit of tightening," Stoddard said. Click here to read The AP-Yahoo survey of adults participating in the Knowledge Networks online surveys. FOX News' Dana Blanton and Caroline Shively contributed to this report.