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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: goldworldnet who wrote (275158)	10/17/2008 7:27:24 PM
From: average joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793990

"Although the vast majority of blacks will vote for Obama, I have read that many of those who do support McCain do so secretly to avoid condemnation from fellow blacks." * * * That is perplexing since Obama is really only half black and that half is not American or American Black. It is interesting to see this shape-shifter come on the scene amid a world crisis. I think most blacks actually are catching on to the fact he is an elitist and not really on their side. McCain would have been much smarter to pick an actual black American like Condoleezza Rice as his running mate.

To: goldworldnet who wrote (275158)	10/17/2008 8:26:16 PM
From: Brumar89	2 Recommendations Respond to of 793990

many of those who do support McCain do so secretly to avoid condemnation I think this is gonna be true of many traditional Democratic voting groups.

To: goldworldnet who wrote (275158)	10/17/2008 9:43:16 PM
From: Ruffian	Respond to of 793990

Study: Obama Could Benefit From 'Reverse Bradley Effect' A study finds that Barack Obama outperformed voter preference polls in 12 states during the primaries and could do the same on Election Day, countering the "Bradley Effect," which suggests that black candidates do better in the polls than they do in actual elections By Stephen Clark FOXNews.com Friday, October 17, 2008 Sunday: Barack Obama speaks at a rally in Asheville, N.C. (AP For months some political analysts have been warning -- and some Barack Obama supporters have been fearing -- that the first black presidential nominee of a major party could fall victim to the "Bradley Effect" on Election Day. The political phenomenon -- named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, a black Democrat who lost a close California governor's race in 1982, even though he was well ahead in the polls -- has demonstrated that black candidates perform better in opinion polls than they do in actual elections, because white voters are hesitant to tell pollsters they won't vote for the black candidate. Other black politicians who are said to have fallen victim to the Bradley Effect were former Chicago Mayor Harold Washington, former New York Mayor David Dinkins and former Virginia Gov. Doug Wilder, all of whom led in the polls by wide margins and ended up winning very close elections. Some analysts argue that Obama needs at least a 5-point lead over McCain in the polls to overcome the Bradley Effect. But a study released this month suggests Obama, who is leading John McCain in national and battleground state polls, could benefit from a "reverse Bradley Effect" and outperform opinion polls in several states The study by two University of Washington researchers says the polls may, in fact, be underestimating Obama's support by 3 percent to 4 percent nationally. Psychologist Anthony Greenwald and political scientist Bethany Albertson used data from 32 Democratic primaries this year. They found evidence of the Bradley Effect in three states -- California, New Hampshire and Rhode Island. But they also found its countereffect in 12 states, including the crucial battleground states of Indiana, Virginia, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Missouri. Reinforcing the notion of a "reverse Bradley Effect" is a Gallup poll this month that found that 6 percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for Obama because of his race, but 9 percent say they are more likely to vote for him, making Obama's race slightly advantageous for him. In the 12 battleground states the researchers reviewed, Obama's support exceeded pre-election polls by 7 percent or more. The researchers attributed the inaccuracy of the polls to social influences. For instance, Greenwald said many women told pollsters they were voting for Hillary Clinton but ultimately cast their ballots for Obama. "I don't think they're lying to pollsters," Greenwald said, explaining that pollsters are contacting people who are undecided and may feel pressure to say they're voting for the candidate who most closely identifies with them socially. Greenwald said he expects to see the reverse effect in the general election, but mostly among older voters who say they're supporting John McCain. He expects many will pull the lever for Obama based, on multiple reasons, including the financial crisis. This trend could determine the outcome of the election, Greenwald said, if Obama's lead shrinks in some state polls. Greenwald said he saw the 2008 election as a perfect opportunity to study whether the Bradley Effect is still a factor in American politics. "Some had said the Bradley effect was gone," he said, explaining that there was no evidence of it since the 1990s. "Then comes Obama and Clinton and we got a chance to look at it in a way that no one ever had before." But not everyone agrees with Greenwald's explanation for a "reverse Bradley Effect." "I think Tony's work is very interesting but I'm skeptical of explanations that have to do with social desirability factors, either with the more conventional Bradley effect or the reverse Bradley effect," said Scott Keeter, director of survey research for the Pew Research Center. "I just haven't seen good evidence that this is a factor in polling these days." Keeter, who conducted the poll for the 1989 gubernatorial race in Virginia, which Wilder won by a smaller-than-expected margin, said a shift in public attitudes about race has diminished the Bradley Effect. "Where the poll understates Obama's support, there's a reasonable explanation that the polls simply understated the degree of support that Obama would get from African American voters," he said. "And it's possible that some states undercounted the number of younger voters. I think there's plenty of alternative explanations that don't have to do with people feeling social pressure to deny their support for a candidate." As for the Gallup poll, Keeter said, "I would never deny that race is a factor. ... But the Bradley Effect posits that we don't predict accurately what people are going to do. We could have an election in which race is a big deal but have perfectly accurate polls." Fox News.