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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (90798)	10/19/2008 4:29:25 PM
From: JohnM	Respond to of 543046

This is extremely worrisome. Nope. That's about what the likely voters, traditional model has been saying. Best thing to watch is either the registered voters model, or the likely voters, expanded model.

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (90798)	10/19/2008 9:14:36 PM
From: NAG1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 543046

Mary, I don't think it is worrisome at this point in time but it is interesting. You would think with all the advantages, Obama should have a significantly larger lead. The fact that he doesn't could be for many reasons not the least could be racism, the deep division in the country, his lack of experience, people believing McCain's advertising etc. . The fact is that a 0.1% victory or a 10% victory still gets you the same office as long as you win in the electoral college. If the state polls tighten significantly because of the polling methods, that would be more worrisome to me. It would appear, though, that Obama's campaign is not taking anything for granted and McCain's campaign, especially with the Powell endorsement of Obama, is running on fumes. Powell's endorsement, as I see it, will help with those who are undecided right now and may help sway some whose support for McCain is very soft right now. One of the big additional things that I think the next president has to do is bring the country back together. I hope that whomever wins, that this is a major thing on their real agenda. Neal

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (90798)	10/20/2008 7:15:36 AM
From: Cogito	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 543046

>>People running Obama'scampaign need a reality check. They are thinking landslide. They are pouring money into NC, Virginia, Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, and other red states when they should be concentrating on Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and other must win states.<< Hey, Cheerful - The Obama campaign is pouring money into Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and every other state. They have a ton of money, so their throwing some of the excess at some vulnerable Republican states. The one poll you're referring to is an outlier. The average has him over 6 points at least. Of course this isn't over. Nobody's getting cocky. - Allen

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (90798)	10/20/2008 8:33:05 AM
From: Paul Kern	Respond to of 543046

People running Obama'scampaign need a reality check. They are thinking landslide. They are pouring money into NC, Virginia, Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, and other red states when they should be concentrating on Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and other must win states. People running Obama's campaign are very smart. They have money and they are forcing the McCain campaign to spend money they can't afford widely and thinly to defend the formerly firmly red sates.

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (90798)	10/20/2008 9:47:32 AM
From: Suma	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 543046

And also NC which is 50/50 right now. Last night the crazy right wing talk show host was on as he is every Sunday night. I get St. Louis,Detroit,Cleveland ans a few more samplings after 11 pm at night. Not during the day. However, Bill Cunningham had persons calling in and saying the most dastardly things about Obama and Cunningham just egged them on. Sounded like the PFP personified. Just awful stuff and so much untrue. Also racism showed it's ugly head. I had to turn the whole thing off and listen to ESPN as on Sunday nights BBC does not come on until after mid night. Obama may be spending money but McCain still has Rush and all the other RW devotees spreading their half truths and inciting FEAR in all those who listen to them. AND this guy seems to have quite a following. He is only on Sunday nights. This is what I find worrisome. The hate that is being disseminated....and FEAR... by the hundreds of commentators on RW radio stations.

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (90798)	10/20/2008 5:36:32 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 543046

Mary, here is an update from Zogby. Taking any one poll--this one or the one you pointed to yesterday--seriously is never a good idea. Look at trends and averages among many polls. In addition, Zogby's polls have pretty consistently found more support for McCain than most other polls, I think. doesn't mean that he is wrong, but... Obama opens 6-point lead over McCain Mon Oct 20, 2008 5:17pm EDT By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama has expanded his national lead over Republican John McCain in the U.S. presidential race to 6 percentage points, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Monday. Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 44 percent among likely U.S. voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, up from Obama's 3-point advantage on Sunday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. The rally by Obama broke a string of three consecutive days when McCain had gained ground on the Illinois senator after their final debate on Wednesday. It was the first time in 14 days of the tracking poll that Obama has reached 50 percent. "Obama has really consolidated his base, and now has huge leads among young people, African-Americans and Hispanics," said pollster John Zogby. "Reaching 50 percent puts him in winning territory." Obama also increased his support among two key swing groups that could be vital in the November 4 election. His edge with independents rose from 8 points to 11 points, and his lead among women grew from 6 points to 8 points. McCain narrowly trails Obama among men and leads by 13 points, 53 percent to 40 percent, among whites. "McCain seems to have slipped a little bit, but in the grand scheme it's still a very close race," Zogby said. Obama has led McCain, an Arizona senator, by between two and six points in all 14 days of polling. "This race has not really moved all that much in two weeks," Zogby said. POWELL ENDORSEMENT The expanding lead for Obama came as he received the endorsement of Republican former Secretary of State Colin Powell and announced he had raised a stunning $150 million in September. His fundraising haul shattered the records he already owns and will fuel a huge advantage for Obama in paid advertising in the final 15 days of the campaign. Some other tracking polls also showed the race tightening in the last few days, but with the help of his huge spending advantage Obama has continued to hold an edge on McCain in some key battleground states. The poll, taken Friday through Sunday, showed independent Ralph Nader and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney with 1 percent support. Libertarian Bob Barr barely registered any support. The rolling tracking poll surveyed 1,211 likely voters in the presidential election. In a tracking poll, the most recent day's results are added while the oldest day's results are dropped in an effort to track changing momentum. The U.S. president is determined not by who wins the most national votes but by who wins the Electoral College, which has 538 members apportioned by population in each state. Electoral votes are allotted on a winner-take-all basis in all but two states, which divide them by congressional district. reuters.com