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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (39069)	10/19/2008 11:16:22 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 149317

Cause he's clueless... Irish bookies are paying off already... this thing is going to be MUCH worse a wipe out than the polls suggest. DAK

To: tejek who wrote (39069)	10/19/2008 11:51:29 PM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 149317

I think he needs about 4-5 point lead in polls to win. This is not certain, but in past pres. elections, except for last, the dem vote has been overestimated. Also not sure how Bradley effect will play out. Lastly polls seem to be tightening again. I had thought he would build on this lead and go into election strong, but now not so sure. Of course todays showing in missouri was impressive and if it is close, and if they can really get the newly registered dems out and if the McCain people fail in their get out the vote drives, all of which could happen, the margin of victory for Obama could be substantial. I have called every presidential election since Reagan but I am not sure about this one at all. So many cross currents, issues Not sure if race is advantage or disadvantage for Obama. Extremely difficult to know which polls have the best model of what the turnout will be like. Little joe