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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (90864)	10/20/2008 1:22:43 PM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 541223

Gallup Daily: Obama’s Lead Edges Higher Has double-digit lead among registered voters PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Friday through Sunday gives Barack Obama an 11 percentage point lead over John McCain in the presidential vote preferences of all registered voters, 52% to 41%. Although the absolute percentages supporting Obama and McCain have varied in a narrow range for nearly the past three weeks, Obama's lead shrank to six points late last week, only to expand again in recent days. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) Gallup's latest three-day rolling average, from Oct. 17-19, spans a weekend when McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, drew a huge television audience and much post-show media coverage for her cameo appearance on NBCs "Saturday Night Live." Also, on Sunday former Secretary of State and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Colin Powell, delivered a strong endorsement of Obama for president -- calling his candidate "a transformational figure" who is capable of being "an exceptional president." The Gallup Poll Daily tracking poll shows no shift in support for the candidates between Saturday and Sunday to suggest that either of these events had any immediate impact on voter preferences. Gallup's modeling of likely voters indicates the race is somewhat tighter if we assume that voter turnout patterns will be similar to those seen in most presidential elections from 1952 through 2004. Using this "traditional" definition of likely voters, which takes into account respondents' history of voting as well as their current interest in the campaign and self-reported likelihood of voting, Obama leads McCain by five points, 50% to 45%. This is slightly better than the two- to three-point leads he held among this group late last week. An alternative expanded likely voter model shows what would happen if turnout reflects voters' self-reported likelihood of voting and campaign interest, but is not assumed to be dependent on their voting history. Under that scenario, Obama leads by 9 points, 52% to 43%. -- Lydia Saad

To: Dale Baker who wrote (90864)	10/20/2008 5:51:16 PM
From: Cogito	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 541223

>>Is anyone on those threads debating why their guy is trailing, or is it all just anger vented outward to blame others?<< Dale - Good question. How many guesses do I get? - Allen