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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (376648)	10/20/2008 5:39:19 PM
From: stan_hughes	11 Recommendations Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

IMO you people need to lengthen out your attention spans a bit, like maybe out to 3 or 4 years or more -- one helluva lot of economic damage has been done in the last 7-8 years that is only beginning to now unwind, and no matter what rabbits get pulled out of Paulson's or Bernanke's butt, we are not going back to business as usual, nor are we going back to the stock valuations that went with it anytime soon More simply put, the wind is no longer at your back, despite these inspiring but misleading bear rallies -- and buying at 60% off always looks good until it becomes 70% or 80% or even 90% off I expect this next reactionary leg up to suck in an amazing number of participants while it lasts, pulling many recent sellers back in as well as a lot of people who were formerly cautious but who will now plunge in, convinced they are catching a bottom. When the rally eventually fails in the face of reality this winter, I expect it will be quite devastating, and quite possibly worthy of the major market collapses in history It is very important that you not con yourself into believing the BS that Paulson and Bernanke or anyone else can print their way out of this mess without numerous dire and unintended consequences. Use your common sense -- the only way that the share prices of this nearly bankrupt financial economy can return to their former nominal values in the next 10 years would be to create a money supply situation where bread is $25 a loaf, gasoline is $50 a gallon and a modest 3BR house is 2 million dollars. While that strategy and outcome is not out of the question, it's more likely that share prices simply remain depressed along with economic activity for a very long time until the weakest participants are eliminated one-by-one by bankruptcy to a point where those who still remain can survive in what's left of their particular industry It's actually a very healthy process in the big scheme of things, except that since it's so unpleasant, nobody ever wants it to be their generation that goes through it, whereupon those in charge attempt all manner of avoidance measures until the inevitable curative process is forced upon them -- no matter what they say, none of these Washington clowns can magically alter 10,000 years of fundamental human economic experience IMO that is precisely where, at long last, we again find ourselves, i.e. the "forced upon them" part. It will be at least as bad as the early 1980s, although probably more like the mid-1960s or the post-war 1940s -- but with a few stupid moves and/or some bad luck, don't rule out seeing aspects of hardship on the order of the early 1930s either Sorry for the gloom trip -- I just feel a need to tell people they need to keep their wits about them this time, this ain't no dip-buying exercise -- BWTFDIK, I'm just a stoopid bear