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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (88842)	10/21/2008 3:00:28 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

I was aware in advance this would happen. Someone in the industry told me about forward lease rates many weeks ago. I did not know if it was confidential information or not so I never reported on it. There is a lot of new shipping capacity coming online next year, right at a time the global economy is plunging rapidly. Mish

To: Perspective who wrote (88842)	10/21/2008 3:01:02 AM
From: mishedlo	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Circuit City Inspired Christmas Shopping Tips globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Christmas shopping tips are coming up shortly. First let's ponder the plight of Circuit City. ... Mish

To: Perspective who wrote (88842)	10/21/2008 3:58:01 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 116555

I sensed this during April this year "RIO" wanted to farm out the transport by barges of their iron ore from Brazil along Parana River and Rio de la Plata. At the time I warned the entity (small shipping company)interested to take the trade not to do it, even that it sounded attractive Even that I did see it as a slowdown in iron ore transports out of S. AMerica I never imagined such a drastic collapse

To: Perspective who wrote (88842)	10/21/2008 5:42:02 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 116555

The Baltic Dry index indicates a very severe worldwide recession but with substantial cargo volume coming on line I think it is more indicative of the situation in the commercial shipping industry. The big concerns building ships will be hurt greatly and I think most of them are in the Far East, steel industry will have overcapacity due to lower shipments to the shipbuilding industry and construction. US steelmaker, Thyssen- Krupp, and the Ruhr Valley in Germany will be hurt as will be Arcelor-Mittal (MT) and other Indian and Chinese Steel enterprises Ukraine a big exporter will suffer and most blessed Russia will have a double whammy. It will cost cheaper to build the Nabucco pipeline and coal and other energy prices will be lower as will be the cost of the TransAsian railroad line from Western China to Turkey BTW - MT shares are down 75% since summer when they where over $100

To: Perspective who wrote (88842)	10/21/2008 7:38:03 AM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I think it says international trade is at a standstill. Little joe