Good news. Murtha's lead is down to four points:
Murtha's hold on House seat slips
By Mike Wereschagin and David M. Brown
TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Two veteran warriors battling to represent the 12th Congressional District appear locked in the closest race in the district in years.
Democratic Rep. John Murtha leads retired Army Lt. Col. William Russell by a little more than 4 percentage points, within the Susquehanna Poll's 4.9-point margin of error. The poll of 400 likely voters was conducted for the Tribune-Review on Tuesday, amid uproar over Murtha's statement that some of his constituents are racist.
Stanley Shemanski, 67, a retired meat cutter who lives in Apollo, said he's undecided about the congressional race. He doesn't know much about Russell, but he's upset with Murtha's comment that racism in the district could hurt Democrat Barack Obama's chances.
"I didn't like that at all. He shouldn't have said it," Shemanski said.
Most of all, the national economy concerns him. "I'm retired, but my daughter, she works for the bank, and I'm worried about that."
Yet, poll participant Melissa Stoltz, 38, of Johnstown said she is backing Murtha because she likes his political views.
"He has the experience, and he is a former Marine. I was a Marine," said Stoltz, a caseworker. "Murtha's done a good job. I think he's really stuck up for your basic, every-run-of-the-day, normal person."
Murtha, 76, a decorated Vietnam combat veteran, apologized for the racism remark, saying he meant to say that skin color is a factor in the battle for the presidency between Obama and Republican John McCain. Trying to add context to his remarks, Murtha later said many in Western Pennsylvania were "rednecks" several years ago.
Russell, 46, a Republican who served in the Iraq war, jumped on the remarks. McCain, in a campaign stop Tuesday in Moon, said he "could not disagree with those critics more," without mentioning Murtha by name.
About 54 percent of voters among those polled say it's time for someone else to represent them in Congress. About 35 percent say Murtha deserves to be re-elected.
"The most important variable here is that a decisive majority say it's time for a new person," said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling and Research. He attributed some of the unhappiness with Murtha to the congressman's recent comments.
It's tough to know how big a factor that is, though, because little attention had been paid to the race, Lee said. Political analysts didn't expect Murtha to be vulnerable.
Murtha's last few challengers didn't come close to toppling him. He won by more than 20 percentage points in 2006 against Washington County Commissioner Diana Irey. He was unopposed in 2004.
This year, according to the poll, it's different.
"This is clearly a winnable race for Russell," Lee said.
Russell's campaign welcomed the poll results.
"In the beginning, we were facing an impossible task. A little later on, we were looking way up the mountain. Now, it looks like the summit is in sight," said Steve Clark, Russell's spokesman.
"We not only disagree with the poll, but we find its results ridiculous," said Matthew Mazonkey, a spokesman for Murtha's campaign. "Congressman Murtha has a clear record of working tirelessly for Western Pennsylvania, and his efforts have created tens of thousands of local jobs."
Obama leads McCain by about 5 percentage points in Murtha's district, which stretches from Cambria County southwest through Washington County, according to the poll. Even if Obama maintains that lead, it's unlikely his coattails would be much help to Murtha, who has to win on his own, Lee said.
"I'll probably vote for (Russell) just to vote Murtha out," said Mary Eileen Churchel, 58, of Washington. She added that she still doesn't know much about the challenger, but thinks Murtha has been in office too long. Churchel, who plans to vote for Obama, said Murtha's comment about racism was "the last straw for me."
Murtha became the first Vietnam combat veteran elected to Congress in 1974. He cites his tenure as a boon to the region.
"I'm in a position now where I have some influence," Murtha said in a recent interview.
Murtha's seniority allows him high-profile roles in Congress, such as chairing the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. It gives him, a self-professed moderate, sway over the more moderate crop of Democrats.
"The rank and file are now more moderate. ... The leadership has to respond to it," he said.
Russell moved to Johnstown within the past year. He said he decided to run after Murtha's 2006 statement that a Pentagon investigation into the deaths of Iraqi civilians in Haditha would show that Marines "killed innocent civilians in cold blood."
Russell repeatedly has criticized Murtha for not apologizing for the remark after seven of the eight Marines charged in the killings were cleared of wrongdoing.
Murtha has stood fast, saying his blunt language brought critical improvement to how American troops engage Iraqis. "We're no longer just breaking down doors," Murtha said.
Officials, including a two-star general, conducting the investigation and the Naval Criminal Investigation Service "came up with the same conclusion I did," Murtha said.
Murtha said he has empathy with U.S. soldiers in Iraq, noting that three of his brothers served in the Marine Corps and he was a Marine for 37 years.
"Listen, they've gone through hell. ... I understand the pressure that's on them," Murtha said.
Russell has raised a lot of money for a first-time candidate -- $2.5 million, compared to $2.1 million raised by Murtha, according to Federal Election Commission reports through Sept. 30. On Oct. 1, the Murtha campaign had $590,995, and Russell showed $333,413 in the bank.
Many residents in the district are upset with Congress for passing a $700 billion economic recovery package in an effort to stabilize the nation's financial market, Russell said. Murtha supported the legislation.
"The bailout, the way it was produced, ended up a bad bill," Russell said.
"The average person here who has been paying their mortgage or have paid off their house, are being asked to foot the bill for all these people -- whether it is the bank or the speculator or the person who bought beyond their means -- and people are very unhappy about that," Russell said.
Murtha said he voted for the bill because top economic officials said something had to be done to keep the economy from spiraling into deeper trouble.
"The Congress is in the tank because the public wants something to happen," Murtha said. "I try to be honest with people and tell them (economic recovery) is not going to happen overnight. We've got a long ways to go."
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