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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marcos who wrote (61812)	10/22/2008 2:45:26 AM
From: koan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78409

You know marcos you could have written that post for me. That is exactly how I had it all figred and still do. Watch this top video at least. This guy is so smart! From DAK on the Obama for president thread: This guy knows exactly the way it worked.... he cannot explain it in lay terms but he's talking all the talk (value at risk) of the risk managers... he's a bit emotional and not talking specifics and will probably continue to be labeled a quack because so many people bought into the models. youtube.com It's also VERY important to realize one of his main point... "this has probably just started... we don't know". This is certainly in line with the hyperinflation viewpoint in that we probably have only started the DEFLATION portion based on debt explosion. He's also a bonafid Wharton 'rocket scientist': youtube.com There are MANY others that know these things... I think they just got greedy and "hoped" nothing would happen.

To: marcos who wrote (61812)	10/22/2008 2:45:59 AM
From: pogohere	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78409

Extremely well put and reflects my portfolio as well, in re declines. Your observation about the flight to US$: "on top of this, the hunting and gathering of cash has become real hard" "we didn't realise that there could be a lag for the effect to work though, with meanwhile the US dollar as 'safe haven'[!] " reflects the most important aspect of this that I totally missed: the velocity of $US slowed to a crawl: i.e., the credit collapse rendered cash crucial as so many entities had to cover for all sorts of reasons, some because they were highly leveraged in toxic financial waste and some because they were vulnerable to the kind of crunch described by Coxe, as you noted. The US$ became a "safe haven" in spite of its fundamentals because as Bob Hoye has pointed out, it's the reserve currency. I can see now that when credit dries up everybody has to rush into and hold onto the lowest common denominator. Under the circumstances, the standard response is to sell gold as the US$ rises (apart from those who sold simply to raise cash). So down it goes at a time that clearly favors it in what is now clearly the long run. Whenever that is. And that will be when the velocity of the US$ speeds up and takes off as those who then have it see it losing purchasing power at an exponential rate and look to get rid of it (invest in something else) as fast as possible. I missed the velocity aspect of this completely. Marc Faber makes the point (http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=897838309&play=1 ) that the Chinese are fudging their stats as badly as the US authorities ever did and their export and infrastructure slowdown will affect commodity prices going forward for a spell (that's a technical term I use that means "I don't know for how long.") I favor gold and energy as what I'll call velocity/inflation plays, with an emphasis on companies that have cash, cash flow, no debt, no unwieldy hedges and management that can think straight and avoid all unnecessary risks.

To: marcos who wrote (61812)	10/22/2008 11:19:00 AM
From: que seria	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78409

I feel your pain, marcos, for exactly the reasons you give. Worse yet, I've long expected deflation prior to severe inflation, and was still caught offside by abruptness of debt implosion and the rush to rescue featuring the anti-gold in the starring role. Keeping my small producing E&Ps that are set to add to production, and most of my junior gold explorers. Have added to Troy based upon production projection and cash, and have taken starter position in Centamin based upon huge forthcoming cash flow without debt (the hit they took getting to production was in dilution, not on their balance sheet). With slight remaining cash I'm going to keep an eye out for entry into other gold producers with market caps that are not much higher than their cash, or are small in relation to expected profits from near term production. On list now to watch are RIC, OSU, EET, MGG, LTO--but they don't quite match my profile for a bear-market-junior gold producer. None appeals to me yet. I consider HAT a huge buy here (1.50-1.60 area) for a 1-2 year payback, but I have all I need and am seeking earlier market validation of my purchases. Sounds as though many of us are interested in same type of refuge in small producers, leaving money pre-positioned for any snap-back in share prices. No point in speculating on discovery at high risk of loss when market offers little or nothing on the upside for explorers that get good results.