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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (41651)	10/22/2008 11:54:50 AM
From: prosperous	10 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 220359

The US government is in full swing executing deflation era strategies, yet they will not tell the public the truth and keep painting a bullish picture when they themselves can't see how to get out of this problem; what this will result in total lack of trust eventually will lead the country (and rest of the world) in an undesired state (be it depression or hyper inflation). Somehow they worked out a world wide synchronous asset price inflation and they expect that now that synchronous asset deflation is in place, they can save the world by redoing synchronous asset inflation (using same solution that caused the problem). The markets can't bottom and/or gain people's trust until asset classes that have traditionally been orthogonal to each other in price start behaving that way, synchronous price behavior shows that there is too much meddling in the market and the markets are not behaving freely. I am not sure any thing good can come out of these international meetings every few weeks to save the world, that will likely generate more harm long term. At this point neither the govt nor people want to change their living style even though the change in paradigm and a key inflection point is staring them in their face. The government does not tell the truth and most people will not want to think hard on what is happening and its implications. All attempts and solutions that are being tried are toward how current spending habits can be continued unabated, instead there needs to be a realization that past habits are history and how best and quickly the population might adjust to new reality with least pain; this denial with cause a loner term pain until both parties are forced to accept reality with a hard landing. Don't know about others but I don't feel comfortable trading against a counter party that can print infinitely, take infinite losses without blinking and without emotion, that counter party is govt who has already started buying bank stocks. How long do we think before they will be trading Google/Baidu under the name of its necessity to save people/world from destruction? At this point I think most individuals don't have any business in being in individual stocks unless they either understand the mechanics or are willing to take total loses with a smile. Those that do, will be part of the statistics in this rewind looking back in time. Unfortunately that does not leave people with a lot of choice in terms of where to put money; its going to be mostly hard assets that govt can't control or create and may be some govt created short term bonds :-(, keeping hedges via shorting is also not a good option at this stage considering how much they have been meddling with shorts.