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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (70642)	10/24/2008 1:56:01 AM
From: Maurice Winn	2 Recommendations Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello TJ. With gold needing to go up 40% to get to the all time high, and platinum needing to go up 160% to do the same, and silver needing a 100% increase, there's a big gap to fill. And that's just to get to the previous high. To get to the market clearing Zimbabwe/Argentina price, there is an order of magnitude to go. It does seem that currency doomsday is postponed. Big Ben has a lot of leeway in deleveraged capital reserve ratios to fill to avoid deflation [which has been large from the peak] so he can keep launching helicopter fleets without hyperinflation kicking in. People are being cleared out of the market en masse against their will to repay ill-advised debts galore. Buying opportunities are swarming, but so are bear traps. We are only two years into the declines and one year into the serious declines so there should be at least another year or two of declines to go before the overall bottom is in. But that is just for a garden variety Biotelecosmictechdot.com crunch. For a world record never in human or biological history like this, there is potential for a much longer crunch. But when Big Ben said there will not be deflation and he has the helicopters to back him up, he was serious and meant business. So I remain confident that Dow 16,000 will be here sooner rather than later. We have had a decade at the 8000 level. That's quite a while. "Sooner" in that context would mean 4 years rather than later, which would mean 10. That does mean no TJ-style dark interregnum and TeoTwawki. I realize humans are prone to Maoistic Manias, WWI, WWII, Russian Revolution, French Revolution, General Genocide [GG] and Contemporaneous Carnage [CC]. But surely we are much better than that. Of course if China was to invade Taiwan and North Korea try on the South or Pakistan try to total India and Iraq have anther go at Iran, with Syria being dealt to by Israel and Germany girding their loins for yet another [this would be the 4th] hegemonistic megalomaniac endeavour, things could get interesting. At present such GG and CC seem remote. But there are 6 billion of us and that's a crowd and a quorum for any ideas at all. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (70642)	10/25/2008 12:55:57 AM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Respond to of 74559

You are right TJ: <i think dollar collapse will be avoided this time, but we are being setup for the genuine crisis to take place within 3-10 years > That's my plan. It's lovely that we are in agreement. My Qi R&D has been in goofing off mode so I had better get back to work on it. It'll be a lot easier to be the Messiah when everything is primed and a Saviour is required. Battling against fiat currencies backed by foolish electorates is not a good idea. It is when they are panicking, looking for escape that the time will be nigh. At present, as you are seeing and suffering, Big Ben has lots of Deflationary ammunition to use up as the deleveraging of the debts is carried out. On the way up, Alan Greenspan KBE and Uncle Sam could make a fortune by monetizing the Made in China productivity bonus and Made in Cyberspace technological miracle and confiscate the profits by inflating the US$ without producing inflation as measured by price increases. On the way down, Big Ben and Uncle Sam can score big again by buying assets on the cheap using helicopter loads of fresh loot without causing inflation because the reserve ratios are imploding on the banks, heading them off at the pass. What a vast financial relativity theory swindle they have been able to work. As recovery proceeds, they'll be able to bank the profits just as Hong Kong did after buying the Hang Seng at about 6000 during the Asian Contagion. But after that, the USA will still need money to live in the manner to which they have become accustomed, creditors will be leery, pixelating more megabucks will be hyperinflationary, Made in China and Serviced in India will not be such supersonic bargains, taxes will not be sufficient... and it will be Game Over. People will get nervous. They'll start ducking and diving. Cash will be trash. Fiat fear will be endemic. Yen, Mark, Rupee, Kwai and Kiwi will be dodgy at best. Then things should get really interesting. I had better hurry up and get Qi ready to rumble. Meanwhile, zenbu.net.nz profits have reached another monthly all-time high as have revenues. Recession? Depression? What are those? All of the above assumes that governments do not do really dopey things in response to the minor glitches now worrying people. Nuclear war is NOT going to help. Nor will The End of Capitalism and growth of the kleptocratic class to regulate the financial system. Unfortunately, it seems that Helen Clark might just squeak back into power because so many productive people have fled the country that the bludgers are ascendant. A country run by and for bludgers is not going to do well compared with others. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (70642)	11/28/2008 11:31:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	2 Recommendations Respond to of 74559

In plotting Qi, one must assume nothing less than Armageddon-like war, with actual weapons, not just cyberspace fun. You are right - I happened upon your comment in my travels [my spies lead me to interesting places]: <the Force will break anyone who uses the service> freelakotabank.com Empires do not necessarily go quietly into the night, nor end with a soft whimper. <"I will NOT go quietly into the night, I will rage rage against the dying of the light!" -from Dylan Thomas > The eternal battle is between the self in synergy of love with other selves, and the alpha male territorial dominance hierarchy collective based on conquest, kleptocracy and tribal serfdom. Jesus was nailed to the cross for daring to propose universal love, fraternal affiliation and a human realm of individuals rather than Roman Emperorship. One should expect nothing less in the modern, civilized, world which is modern and civilized like a chimpanzee tea party. The Japanese tea ceremony is a better guide. Blessed are the geek for they shall inherit the Earth. Mqurice