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To: Mark McLeod who wrote (2631)10/21/1997 10:07:00 PM
From: Arnie Doolittle  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10227
 
Mark, you didn't ask me, but I'll throw my two centavos in anyway. If earnings are $6.50 in 2002, I'd expect a pe of 30 or so on trailing earnings. I'd also expect a growth rate in that same neighborhood, say 25-30%, primarily due to explosive international growth as the U.S. market slows to 15-20% growth. A buyer would have to pay a premium based on forward earnings so add $1.60 to $2 to 2003 earnings and you're looking at something in the mid 200's, say $250 a share. So maybe I'm a bit agressive on my growth figures, as is PW, and it turns out to be worth "only" $200 a share. I'll take it and run.

Arnie



To: Mark McLeod who wrote (2631)10/22/1997 2:15:00 PM
From: Bubba  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10227
 
My guess, and its only that, on a take out price would be the discounted cash flow value at a low double digit discount rate plus a "premium". Today, I think that would be well over $50. At year end '98 I think well over $75.

McCaw knows what HE thinks this company is worth. I don't think he would take a price that would represent "fair value". Frankly, I don't think he would even look at a $50 bid today. Where is he going to reinvest his $? I think he just might take a $100 bid though.

Come to think of it, so would I.

Bub