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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (89103)	10/24/2008 5:13:37 PM
From: benwood	2 Recommendations Respond to of 116555

Based on my horribly imprecise and inexperienced eyeball, viewing volatility, volume, and closing price since July 1st, I'd venture that we will not exceed that < 8k low next week and will see some return of calmness to the markets, for a while at least. I'd go further, and say we'll be higher through Christmas. And that might be a good time to raise cash again, as Christmas lies may have run their course. But I've done all the bottom fishing I intend to do, and will sit with 60-65% cash through Christmas and I expect to start increasing cash before the new year. I just have a bad feeling about next year. One thing gives me pause though... the delevering process has been far more virulent and interventions far more frequent and often damaging than I expected, and since nearly everybody expects a bounce, perhaps too much positioning has already occurred making the market very vulnerable in the near term. Plus, something really really stupid and corrupt is still possible by the current fearocracy, although the 750 billion swindle may be the coup-de-grace they were seeking before they skipped out of town. I wouldn't rule out something nefarious and terrible of a domestic nature however, between now and election esp. and otherwise between now and Inauguration Day (esp if Obama wins).

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (89103)	10/25/2008 2:55:59 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	5 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

I've been looking for a bounce to ride in the bear market and have been disappointed so far. All the bounces have been anemic as the market is "managed". Like this(Friday) morning. Futures, -550 locked-down, should have re-opened for trading 30 minutes prior to the open. But they never reopened as "special friends" were given the opportunity of "Market on Open" orders to take the panic out of the decline. Until they permit free markets, with the associated panic, we will not get a good hard bounce like we did in US markets during the Asia Crisis. During that period I made so much money one morning, a Monday or Tuesday, . . . Hopefully they will permit free-markets again after the election. Bush is a prick. .