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To: Les H who wrote (159917)10/24/2008 7:28:32 PM
From: orkriousRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
I do not rule out $300 as a downside target.

ROFLMAO



To: Les H who wrote (159917)10/24/2008 7:53:54 PM
From: Giordano BrunoRespond to of 306849
 
Winds of change?

Taiwan Dumps Fannie, Freddie.
And Uncle Sam?
By RANDALL W. FORSYTH | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

Despite bailout, GSE debt is eschewed by major foreign investor, and ally.

WHO LOST TAIWAN?

After Mao drove the Nationalists off the Mainland in 1949, the cry went up among U.S. conservatives, "Who lost China?"

Now Washington might well worry about who lost Taiwan as a major investor in U.S. agency securities as the Republic of China has openly questioned their credit quality -- even after the federal government has committed hundreds of billions of dollars to bail out mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Beyond that, Washington might well worry that other nations also no longer view its agencies -- and now, by extension, the very credit of the United States of America -- beyond question.

Taiwan's financial regulators reportedly have ordered that nation's insurance companies to pare their holdings of the debt and mortgage-backed securities of Fannie Mae (ticker: FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE) and Ginnie Mae securities, according to a report on the Internet site of Asian Investor magazine.

Such an order would be a stunning rebuke to Washington, coming a little more than a month after the federal government effectively nationalized the mortgage giants. Fannie and Freddie last month were placed into conservatorships with the Treasury standing ready to inject up to $100 billion through purchases of preferred shares in the government sponsored enterprises.

As a result, Fannie and Freddie debt has the "effective guarantee" of the U.S. government, a spokeswoman for the Federal Housing Finance agency, the regulator for the GSEs, said Thursday. (That was a "clarification" of FHFA director James Lockhart's earlier declaration to the Senate Finance Committee that Fannie and Freddie debt had the "explicit" guarantee of the U.S. Treasury, Dow Jones Newswires reports.)

Moreover, Ginnie Mae securities have always been backed with the same full faith and credit guarantee as the U.S. Treasury.

In either case, the Taiwanese action is a blow to the reeling U.S. mortgage market, which has been supported by the Republic of China's purchases of agency securities. According to U.S. Treasury data, Taiwan owned a very substantial $55 billion of U.S. agencies along with $43 billion of Treasuries as of June 30, 2007, the most recent date for which these data are available.

In mid-July, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced plans to back Fannie and Freddie, which were effected in early September. Indeed, the federal government's actions were in no small part to reassure foreign holders of GSE paper, who had come to trust in its implicit guarantee of the U.S. government. Failure to back Fannie and Freddie would almost certainly have had catastrophic implications for the dollar and all U.S. financial assets.

Yet, as more recent Treasury International Capital numbers show, investors around the globe have been shedding U.S. agency securities since mid-year. The latest TIC data show some $79.4 billion of agencies were liquidated in July and August by investors abroad while they added $69.1 billion to their holdings of Treasuries.

Despite those actions to prop up the GSEs, yields on Fannie and Freddie debt securities have continued to rise to record spreads over Treasuries. Two-year Fannie notes were yielding almost 140 basis points (1.40 percentage points) over Treasuries while 10-year Freddie notes traded 95 basis points over the corresponding Treasury note. Those extraordinary yield premiums for what are, de facto, U.S. government obligations.

The deterioration in Fannie and Freddie securities' prices, resulting in part from the liquidation from abroad, has hit foreign holders hard.

"Exposures to U.S. agency MBS have created massive holes in Taiwanese insurers' balance sheets," according to Asian Investor. As a result, the FSC has eased requirements for MBS to be marked to market.

At the same time, the Insurance Bureau at the Financial Supervisory Commission in Taipei revised rules for the treatment capped allowable exposure for mortgage-backed securities, although the regulators stopped short of ordering their outright sale.

Perhaps something was lost in translation of the housing bill that provided for the Fannie-Freddie bailout.

In the U.S., the $130 billion Pimco Total Return Bond fund -- the world's biggest fixed-income fund, run by Barron's Roundtable member Bill Gross -- boosted its holdings of MBS (primarily Fannies and Freddies) to 79% by the end of September. That was the highest since June 2000 and an increase from 69% at the end of September. DJ Newswires quoted a Pimco manager this week that he continues to favor agency MBS and direct debt, precisely because of the federal backing of the securities.

On the other hand, distance may have provided a different perspective. Gross had argued forcefully for the U.S. government to use its own balance sheet to fight the credit crisis. And his portfolios of agency MBS and notes rallied when Washington followed his advice.

Taiwan, by contrast, perhaps sees things differently. As a small island with few friends, the ROC has to look out for its own interest. The irony is that America is one of those few allies. If Taiwan implicitly says it doesn't trust the credit of the U.S., what does it say about it say about that nation's faith in Washington in other spheres?



To: Les H who wrote (159917)10/24/2008 9:38:48 PM
From: Pogeu MahoneRespond to of 306849
 
I think China will not do this as it would expose their sham banking system
=====

China Urged to Fight Crisis by Asia, Europe Leaders (Update2)

By Dune Lawrence

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's largest holder of foreign currency, will be pressed to get more involved in combating the global financial crisis at today's biennial summit of Asian and European leaders.

European Commission President Jose Barroso said he'll use the meeting in Beijing to press China to support new financial rules. Thailand will ask China to ease currency-conversion restrictions and South Korea has suggested moving more quickly to create an $80 billion fund to shore up Asian exchange rates.

The two-day Asia-Europe Meeting, known as ASEM, includes China's Hu Jintao, France's Nicolas Sarkozy and more than 40 other heads of state. It is the first summit of Asian leaders since bank failures, plunging stock markets and weakening currencies amplified fears that the world is headed for a prolonged economic decline.

China is seen as key to any global response because it has the world's fastest-growing major economy and $1.9 trillion of currency reserves, an amount larger than Canada's gross domestic product.

``As Asia's emerging economic power, China will likely try to mediate a consensus among the ASEM nations,'' said Kim Eun Mee, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. ``Other ASEM nations have been calling for China to take a more leading role.''

Given the crisis, this year's meeting may prove to be more substantive than past ones, said Phil Deans, a professor of international affairs at Temple University in Tokyo.

`Really Important'

``ASEM has the potential this time to achieve something really important,'' Deans said. ``If you can get the Asian and European economies singing from the same page the Americans will have to follow.''

The meeting is one of several in the coming weeks that will focus attention on China's response to the crisis.

President George W. Bush has invited leaders from the Group of 20 industrialized and developing nations -- including China -- to attend a Nov. 15 summit in Washington, 11 days after the U.S. presidential election. Finance ministers from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group gather in Trujillo, Peru, starting Nov. 6. APEC's heads of state get together in Lima on Nov. 22. The G- 20's finance ministers and central bank governors convene in Sao Paulo beginning on Nov. 8.

Thailand's request that China ease conversion restrictions on its currency is aimed at facilitating the pooling of reserves to create a $350 billion fund to protect the region's currencies and buy stocks and bonds, said Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister, Olarn Chaipravat, in an interview in Bangkok on Oct. 22.

`Anointed Currency'

``The message of this initiative is for China to consider whether or not China would open up its banking system and allow the strongest currency in the world, which is the Chinese yuan, relative to anybody, to be the rightful and anointed convertible currency of the world,'' he said.

China called for increased international cooperation to create a ``fair and equitable'' global financial system today and urged the International Monetary Fund to increase its surveillance, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance. China also said it would expand the size of its bilateral currency swaps with South Korea.

China's support is key to helping Southeast Asia weather an economic downturn, Surin Pitsuwan, Secretary General of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today.

Leaders from Japan, South Korea, China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations agreed that a regional $80 billion foreign exchange pool should be formed by the end of the year, he said.

Liquidity Needed

``What we need is liquidity that is ready to be drawn on.''

Lessons from the Latin American debt crisis and Asian financial crisis are that mechanisms must be put in place rapidly to aid vulnerable markets, and China is one of the few countries with resources to play a leadership role, wrote Citigroup Inc. Senior Vice Chairman William Rhodes in the Financial Times.

China will be forced to take proposals from other Asian countries seriously, said Steve Tsang, a fellow in modern Chinese studies at St. Anthony's College, Oxford, U.K.

``If the region is financially destabilized, it will have more of an impact on China'' than the banking crisis in the U.S. and Europe, where a slowdown in consumer spending may choke off demand for Chinese products, Tsang said. China's 9 percent economic growth in the third quarter was its slowest pace in five years.

Stocks Slump

Global stock markets have plunged this year amid $660 billion in mortgage-related losses that have frozen credit markets and forced central banks to pump $2 trillion into bailouts for failing financial institutions. The benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific Index has plunged 49 percent this year.

Asia faces a challenge in responding to the crisis because many of its heads of state are new to their jobs.

Japan, the world's second-largest economy, installed Taro Aso as its third prime minister in less than a year on Sept. 24; he faces national elections as soon as next month. The leaders of Thailand, South Korea and Australia all have been in office less than a year. New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark faces voters Nov. 8 and is behind in opinion polls. Malaysia's ruling party chooses a new premier in March.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dune Lawrence in Beijing at dlawrence6@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 24, 2008 04:50 EDT

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To: Les H who wrote (159917)10/25/2008 12:06:28 PM
From: Les HRead Replies (3) | Respond to of 306849
 
E-tailers push e-mail discounts to lure shoppers
By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO

NEW YORK (AP) - Online retailers - grappling with a sharp drop in consumer spending from even their most gung-ho Web enthusiasts - are becoming pushier with e-mails that pitch the latest deals.

With pleas like, "Last chance to save 20 percent," or "Hurry, final sale ends," retailers from pure online players to land-based stores with a Web presence are hoping to get consumers to open their wallets - quickly and in a cost-effective way.

AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (ANN)'s recent e-mails promote knit tops as low as $9.99, while Saks Fifth Avenue's e-mail messages tout up to 60 percent off on new women's fashions. But such attempts to pump up sales threaten to drive away shoppers, who may already be starting to get bleary-eyed over the bombardment.

And if consumers are fed up with the e-mail blasts now, just wait until the holiday season gets under way in earnest - with merchants expecting to increase the pace as they do whatever they can to make their sales goals.

I find them annoying," said Cory Porter, a Web shopping fan from Washington D.C. who says he now receives about seven per day, twice as many as about two months ago. He had signed up with about nine retailers including Barneys New York, Banana Republic and Safeway to receive e-mail promotions, but thought they would be customized to his needs.

"I am a 32-year-old guy who lives in an urban area with no kids," Porter said. "In other words, I don't need blouses, high heels, or kids' juice boxes." As a result, he's opted out with some stores, directing the rest to his spam account.

The frenetic pace of offers comes as Web shopping - which had held up better in the slowing economy than store-based retailing - has been starting to slow dramatically since the financial meltdown intensified in September.

Sucharita Mulpuru, an analyst at Forrester Research, expects online retailers to fare better than regular stores this holiday season because of the convenience, the breadth of selection and the perceived value. But "there is definitely a significant slowing down" in online shopping, she said, noting that the stock market tumble, weaker job market and tighter credit have spooked even the most enthusiastic Web shoppers.

Amazon.com, considered the bellwether of Web shopping, announced late Wednesday that it was slashing its full-year sales outlook, saying it had slower growth rates near the end of the quarter and now expects annual revenue below analyst expectations.

Porter, who does public relations for government contractors, noted that he slashed his spending on clothing and gadgets to $200 this month amid "all the economic uncertainty." That compares with the $500 per month he had been spending. He said he typically does about half of his buying on the Web.

Kurt Peters, editor-in-chief of trade publication Internet Retailer, noted that stores can easily react to a sharp sales slowdown in a matter of hours by sending out e-mail blasts, which is faster and more cost-effective than redoing a mailer to consumers. Julie M. Katz, another Forrester analyst, estimates that it costs about $2 for every thousand e-mails sent. The Direct Marketers Association estimates that marketers reap $45.06 in return on investment for every dollar they spend on e-mail campaigns. That compares with $7.28 for catalogs and $15.55 for direct mail pieces.

Analysts say that during the last recession in 2001, stores didn't have the vast data bank of consumer contacts they could mine as they do now.

Internet Retailer's recent survey of 174 Web retailers, including those that operate stores, found that nearly half have increased the number of monthly e-mails they send compared to a year ago. Chad White, director of retail insights for the Email Experience Council, the e-mail marketing arm of the DMA, reports an 8 percent increase in the number of e-mails stores have sent for the week ended Oct. 17, compared to the same week a year earlier.

Overall, Forrester predicts that retailers and wholesalers will send 158 billion marketing e-mails this year; that's expected to increase 63 percent to 258 billion in 2013. At the same time, consumers are becoming turned off with e-mail. Forrester said it is finding that online consumers were annoyed with e-mail volume and are beginning to turn to social networking sites, texting and other communication channels.

Michael Wagner, CEO of etoys.com, said e-mail campaigns drive about 12 percent of overall revenue but noted that he's not sure if they will do more this holiday season than last year. "We are concerned about exhausting the customer," he said.

The big problem, according to Stephanie Miller, vice president of market development for consulting group Return Path Inc., is that less than 20 percent of retailers' e-mails are customized even though stores have the capability of targeting their messages. She thinks it's because marketers don't get the resources they need. That will change, she said, because just stepping up the frequency is not going to work in this challenging environment.

Dan de Grandpre, founder of dealnews.com, a site that keeps track of store bargains, said that he's noticed that stores are sending out more reminders and are blasting e-mails that offer discounts across many categories instead of just one item. The bulk of the e-mails are coming from apparel and furnishings chains, which have been hardest hit by the economic slowdown as shoppers cut back on non-essentials.

Forrester's Katz expects that stores may pull back on e-mail campaigns after the holiday season; she added such programs still cost companies a "chunk of change" given the millions of e-mails they send out.

"Consumers just don't have the dollars. The reality is going to sink in," she said.

apnews.excite.com



To: Les H who wrote (159917)10/27/2008 10:13:44 AM
From: DebtBombRespond to of 306849
 
That's got to be the stupidest piece I ever saw written, IMO. We're on the edge of depression, edge of hyper-inflation, edge of financial meltdown, edge of falling off the peak oil cliff, edge of falling off the spending wave cliff. Just as those deer frozen in headlights were blind to the financial tsunami tractor trailer that just ran them over, they are now blind to the coming hyper-inflation train that's going to plow them over, IMHO. Someone talking about $300 gold? LOL.