Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (70667)	10/25/2008 2:55:52 AM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Respond to of 74559

Yes, gold is a better bet than US$ [or any other state-run central-planning fiat money for that matter] in the long run [or even the medium run and possibly the short run]. It looks as though Big Ben and co are going to escape this time around due to the very large deflationary effect of the credit implosion and unwinding of all sorts of leveraged credit. Your 3 year time-table looks more likely than a big surprise Xmas present. I was the first to price gold at $2,000 for financial relativity theory event horizon approach years ago and $10,000 for full scale replacement of US$ beyond the event horizon. SI records are so much fun. QCOM and other 21st century cyberspace realm businesses will go along with gold into the new realm. Puff-ball financial companies like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual and many others will not. Neither will industrial revolution companies like Henry Ford's cogs and pressed steel production lines other than faded relics of previous glories. Mqurice PS: A search of "gold, $2,000, $10,000, Mqurice" should locate said rants.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (70667)	10/25/2008 4:59:22 AM
From: marek_wojna	2 Recommendations Respond to of 74559

<<U.S. has plundered world with dollar, Chinese state paper rages>> Here is an interesting reading. <<http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSPEK466920081024>> The link didn't worked, you can copy and than follow the address. If anybody follows the news today EU and Asia reached some kind of an agreement.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (70667)	11/4/2008 11:20:48 PM
From: Maurice Winn	3 Recommendations Respond to of 74559

Excellent news TJ: < China and Taiwan have signed landmark agreements to improve direct trade and transport links, following the highest-level Chinese visit in decades.> Thanks for pointing that out [from behind the ElM fortress walls]. It seems that China's bosses have been reading my posts and have figured out that Australia has managed to remain independent of Britain, but part of the British Commonwealth, and closely associated with the USA without tantrums, conflicts, belligerence and explosives. New Zealand was part of Australia and both were part of Great Britain under Queen Victoria. NZ seceded from Australia, and Britain, but only in a sort of kind of way and it doesn't make much difference either way really. Certainly there has been no need to point rockets at each other. Trade has continued apace and USA, Canada, UK, Australia and NZ all are much wealthier per capita than China, even though none now owns the other, for the most part, sort of. I suppose China likes to think of itself as King George of long ago when there was a war of independence and how much better China and Taiwan would be if Taiwan was forced to pay tax to Beijing. With hindsight, it would have been easier to forget the taxes and just arrange trade and maybe some tariffs if that seemed like a good idea for either one to charge. It will make much worse television without the rocket's flare and the bomb's blast, bodies and suffering. There will be less 1812 Overture type great music about the profits of trade, but for those who have to actually live the events, it's better this way. Obama might even be able to cut spending on planning for war with China if China starts to behave in a civil manner and stop swaggering and threatening to murder. That would enable Americans to phone their Made in China suppliers and arrange very large purchase orders. China could order 1 billion CDMA/OFDM powered 450MHz cyberphones [there are some VERY swanky devices coming on-stream = see "SnapDragon" for example.] Half the USA military budget would still leave some serious weaponry ready to rumble. NZ leaving Oz didn't really change anything between the two. China will find Taiwan more like a young adult leaving home = they'll be back when they find there are some excellent economic reasons to remain in a good relationship with those who love them. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (70667)	11/8/2008 8:26:46 PM
From: Maurice Winn	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

TJ, thank you for your history lesson in ElM's dugout. I am so glad that I don't feel constrained to defend any particular position, nor to stick to any particular ideas in the face of actual events as actually produced in 3D, rather than my predictions of either an inevitable or otherwise variety. As you say, panic is a survival characteristic. Cowardice another. Retreat another. Changing my mind another. We will get to Dow 16,000, but there seems likely to be more dark interregnum before that not necessarily happy event. Financial relativity theory involves numbers changing but not necessarily to anyone's advantage. As the US$ measuring stick is reduced in length as the US$ approaches the speed of light, it will take US$1000 to buy one Happy Meal. Predicting the process and the timing is the trick. What is happening now is what I feared would happen way back in 1999/Y2K but I decided that what Uncle Al KBE would do and did do would result in what happened, which was a market clearing crunch with a recovery as happened. We are not quite to the cascading collapse to the financial relativity theory event horizon, but with politicians around the world adopting the unfortunate policy "Don't just stand there, do something", they could well take us to the collapse point. This time around is bigger by a long way. So the chance of the collapse seems more probable. Indeed NZ does have fish and I have fishing lines and have caught a lot of fish in my time. There is also LOTS of fertile land. But so far, the collapse is better for me rather than worse in that people are more keen to work for less money. I can wander into my local cafe at any time now, not having to avoid times between 11.30am and 2pm, and find a table or three. The roads are also less congested as people save on petrol. Tradesmen are also more available at shorter notice at lower prices. It's an ill wind that blows nobody good. Tarken-san has done well shorting the financial carnage over the last year or two. Zenbu is Gung Ho. Summer is here. Our house value hasn't changed though I believe the selling price has done [if it was for sale]. Qualcomm [and a lot more besides] is now MUCH more reasonably priced should I wish to load up the Tonka Truck converting US$, which I will do when they ring the bell to say it's the bottom. I know a lot of people are saying it's the bottom already, but I haven't heard the official bell-ringing. They also say "buy when others are fearful" which they are doing in droves. But that suggests they themselves are not experiencing fear. Which means their slogan lacks a little logic. They are being greedy, buying what they think is the bottom. So I should sell when others are greedy [meaning them]. New Zealand should be like Iceland, but somewhat bigger. There was once a domino theory about how communism would spread from Vietnam to Cambodia, Laos, and onward. This is looking like such a domino theory. Mqurice PS: I have been working all along, to a greater or lesser extent. My current occupation is general Zenbu helper. I got a BIG pay rise recently [pay doubled due to good results, though 2 x $0 is still not many Happy Meals]. Not to worry, the company's balance sheet continues to get bigger. Working is okay by me.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (70667)	12/5/2008 5:22:01 AM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Respond to of 74559

TJ, China continues down the dead-end trail towards TD-SCDMA and now, the new, improved TD-LTE smokescreen of vapour-wear is being promulgated: Message 25226475 Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (70667)	12/5/2008 11:39:04 AM
From: Maurice Winn	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

TJ, it's so fun to say I told you so. Have you noticed that oil is nearer $40 a barrel than $200, as predicted by Mq the Marvelous? SUVs, 747s and ships are being parked as people find their previous perceived position in financial relativity theory was not what they thought. It turns out that borrowed money is not wealth. A few hundred years ago an Englishe gentleman commented on how it's best not to be either a borrower or a lender because husbandry is defenestrated along with friendship. It turns out his comments didn't just apply to the 15th century. <Light, sweet crude for January delivery was down $1.43 at $42.24 a barrel -- nearly a 4 year low -- in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by afternoon in Europe after going as low as $42.05 on release of the jobs statistics. The contract fell $3.12 overnight to settle at $43.67, the lowest since January 2005. "Baby it's cold out there ... on the NYMEX that is," wrote trader and analyst Stephen Schork in his Schork Report. "Given how weak price action is there, last night's 15 F (-9 C) temps in Chicago seem downright balmy." Oil prices have fallen about 70 percent since peaking at $147.27 in July. > Quarter of a century ago I was running various alternative energy programmes for BP Oil. The current situation is reminiscent of that. I was rapidly shutting them down after not long in the process as it was obvious that they were uneconomic activities. Burning oil is a good way to get energy. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and China can produce energy really cheaply. It doesn't make sense to use expensive means to produce energy when very cheap ones are available. I love photovoltaics and the idea of silicon and other semi conductors being dug out of the dirt and turned into electricity producing "leaves" covering deserts and all sorts of places. But with oil at $10 a barrel, it's not going to be competitive [not yet anyway in most places]. Even at $40 a barrel, alternative energy programmes are in big trouble. BP Solar was flat out on photovoltaics back in the day and making good money, but in limited applications. I was a fan club member then and still am. I love the idea of fusion too! But BP's fusion programmes have not generated cheap electricity yet. We already have a big fusion reactor - sitting right there in the sky. Collecting the output is the trick. It's free for anyone who wants to go to the trouble of collecting it. Sol is having a rest period and quite a big one at that. I have predicted a Little Ice Age starting this northern winter and so far, given the snow in England, we are on track. The next sun spot cycle should be like 1812's. Which was cold and not good for Napoleon to conquer Russia ... brrr.... Don't worry about Global Warming and the Greenhouse Effect. People are cutting back on CO2 production and it doesn't cause warming anyway [not the small output by humans]. Worry about how cold it will be in Beijing with an Ice Age. Genghis did well because of global warming back in they day. It got cold again later and the Little Ice Age must have been bleak up north. Cold and snow have large geopolitical effects. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (70667)	12/5/2008 5:56:27 PM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Respond to of 74559

TJ, you have been a naughty boy so no 450MHz cyberphones for you for Xmas, or, you have been quietly working away during your many trips to mainland China to get 450MHz CDMA/OFDM going and the small benefit of a couple of free cyberphones was too small to get you to disclose your top secret operations. Whichever, it looks as though 450MHz CDMA/OFDM is being pushed flat out: <China Telecom already had CDMA450, which it is using to expand into sparsely populated areas, and it will use the CDMA2000 in the 850MHz band for higher density areas, Mansi said. "China Telecom said to the phone manufacturers that we want to have all our phones made with capacity for 450MHz and 850MHz. This means that the huge amount of phones in China are all going to have 450 as well. And with the enormous economies of scale, that will bring down the cost for these phones worldwide," Mansi said. > Huawei continues to gain ground so it seems that China will in fact do as suggested by Mq the Marvelous. Meanwhile, they continue to try to force TD-SCDMA into the system in face of economic and technological rationality, already discussing TD-LTE before the still-born TD-SCDMA is crawling, let alone up and running. It would be best to simply ditch the failed idea before pouring in more effort. Qualcomm has ditched various things when they prove to be bad ideas. China should do likewise. Mqurice