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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (159976)	10/25/2008 11:38:10 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 306849

Dow will definitely be in the 6000's or lower before we're done. We're due for a pretty decent bounce soon (maybe next week or after the election). It'll probably be violent but the overall economic fundamentals have a long way to go. Domino #1 is glued to the floor in the down position and will remain so until politicians get the phuck out the way and let prices hit real market levels, i.e, levels supported by income. That will take time, and probably won't be completed until late 2009 or 2010. It'll be interesting to see how much of the free market will be left by then, versus Corporate Merka at large becoming one giant "Government-sponsored enterprise". Knighty Tin used to have a hierchy for investment manager intelligence. I believe Pension fund and insurance companies were on the very bottom.....<NG> BTW, when the hell is all this deflation gonna hit the grocery stores? The pharmacy? Insurance rates? We're paying a fortune here.....<NG>

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (159976)	10/25/2008 11:55:04 AM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

>>>This action by CALPERS.....<<< Isn't it amazing!?!?! If you are a California public employee, you are in a heap of hurt. California in general is in a heap of hurt. Do you suppose that the Paulson crew has a handle on how many retirement funds have large real estate exposure?? We all know that they have large stock exposure. I am just wondering if Paulson is sitting there taking phone call after phone call from retirement fund managers stating that they are 50% in real estate and can't sell it. The government keeps saying that we have to stabilize real estate prices. A little extra motivation. Talk about signs of excess - love that punch bowl. A retirement fund getting the equivalent of a margin call!?!?!?!?! How many others are in that position? Its unthinkable really. The article doesn't discuss the increasing number of boomers who will be starting to take withdraws from those funds. Do you think that there will be any early retirement packages being offered soon??? Everything is in maximum positive feedback mode. And the gain is turned up all the way with all of the leverage. I posted Chris Martenson's "Short Course" yesterday. He thinks that the world will end in fire....inflation. Roubini just coined the word "destagflation." (Think I have that right.) This is where we have no growth but deflation.....ice. Good arguments for both. The government is printing like there is no tomorrow. First buying banks. Now credit card companies....COF went to the trough yesterday. We see another insurance company on the bandwagon this AM. I am going to see Roubini in person this Thursday at an AEI conference. Should be a nice ease into Halloween.

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (159976)	10/25/2008 12:25:01 PM
From: Smiling Bob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Another 700 billion managed to stop trickling down right at the bank execs wallets. When do the people start the revolt? This is insane. Their focus has turned to nothing but fattening up their paychecks. Nothing has changed Govt should not only be ousted, but tried and hung. ---- Uses for $700 billion bailout money ever shifting Saturday October 25, 10:53 am ET By John Dunbar, Associated Press Writer Treasury tacks on uses for $700 billion bailout money with shifting economic winds WASHINGTON (AP) -- First, the $700 billion rescue for the economy was about buying devalued mortgage-backed securities from tottering banks to unclog frozen credit markets. Then it was about using $250 billion of it to buy stakes in banks. The idea was that banks would use the money to start making loans again. But reports surfaced that bankers might instead use the money to buy other banks, pay dividends, give employees a raise and executives a bonus, or just sit on it. Insurance companies now want a piece; maybe automakers, too, even though Congress has approved $25 billion in low-interest loans for them. Three weeks after becoming law, and with the first dollar of the $700 billion yet to go out, officials are just beginning to talk about helping a few strapped homeowners keep the foreclosure wolf from the door. As the crisis worsens, the government's reaction keeps changing. Lawmakers in both parties are starting to gripe that the bailout is turning out to be far different from what the Bush administration sold to Congress. In buying equity stakes in banks, the Treasury has "deviated significantly from its original course," says Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. "We need to examine closely the reason for this change," said Shelby, who opposed the bailout. The centerpiece of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act is the "troubled asset relief program," or TARP for short. Critics note that tarps are used to cover things up. The money was to be devoted to buying "toxic" mortgage-backed securities whose value has fallen in lockstep with home prices. But once European governments said they were going into the banking business, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson followed suit and diverted $250 billion to buy stock in healthy banks to spur lending. Bank executives hinted they might instead use it for acquisitions. Sen. Christopher Dodd, chairman of the Senate banking committee, said this development was "beyond troubling." Sure enough, a day after Dodd, D-Conn., made the comment, the government confirmed that PNC Financial Services Group Inc. was approved to receive $7.7 billion in return for company stock. At the same time, PNC said it was acquiring National City Corp. for $5.58 billion. "Although there will be some consolidation, that's not the driver behind this program," Paulson recently told PBS talk show host Charlie Rose. "The driver is to have our healthy banks be well-capitalized so that they can play the role they need to play for our country right now." Other planned uses of the bailout money have lawmakers protesting, although it is only fair to note there is nothing in the law that they just wrote to prevent those uses. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y. questioned allowing banks that accept bailout bucks to continue paying dividends on their common stock. "There are far better uses of taxpayer dollars than continuing dividend payments to shareholders," he said. Schumer, whose constituents include Wall Street bankers, said he also fears that they might stuff the money "under the proverbial mattress" rather than make loans. Neel Kashkari, head of the Treasury's financial stability program, told Dodd's committee this past week that there are few strings attached to the capital-infusion program because too many rules would discourage financial institutions from participating. As the bank plan has become a priority, the effort to buy troubled assets has receded from the headlines. Potential conflicts of interest pose all kinds of problems in finding qualified companies to manage that program. "Firms with the relevant financial expertise may also hold assets that become eligible for sale into the TARP or represent clients who hold troubled assets," Kashkari said. The challenge was made plain when the Treasury hired the Bank of New York Mellon Corp. as "custodian" of the troubled assets purchase program. The bank will conduct "reverse auctions" to buy the toxic securities on behalf of the Treasury. The lower the price they set, the better chance sellers have of getting rid of the devalued securities. On the same day it hired Mellon, the Treasury also picked the company to receive a $3 billion investment as part of the capital-infusion program. The same bank hired to help manage part of the economic rescue plan became a beneficiary of it. With the Nov. 4 election nearing, lawmakers decided it was important to remind the government officials running the bailout program about parts of the law aimed at helping distressed homeowners by offering federal guarantees to mortgages renegotiated down to lower monthly payments. "The key to our nation's economic recovery is the recovery of the housing market," Dodd said. "And the key to recovery of the housing market is reducing foreclosures." Sheila Bair, who heads the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., responded that her agency is working "closely and creatively" with Treasury officials to "realize the potential benefits of this authority." Treasury: treasury.gov

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (159976)	10/25/2008 3:29:11 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Respond to of 306849

This action by CALPERS is a trend one could reasonably expect to continue through at least the end of the year. How many other funds made gambles that this would be over quickly, and are now being forced to sell assets at steep losses? Assets include stocks, commodities, and real estate. There is no chance we are at a bottom until this sort of thing ends. It doesn't matter how "oversold" things are. These funds will sell right into any rallies, just as they have been doing, because they have no choice. As we continue to go down, and as time goes on, more funds will be forced to do what CALPERS is doing. you bet.... i remember dennis gartman saying early LAST SUMMER that pension funds were big buyers of commodity trades at the TOP of the commodities bubble....the losses they're taking on those trades alone imo are potentially ruinous....what the hell were the pension fund managers thinking??