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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ames who wrote (73142)	10/26/2008 12:57:29 AM
From: c.hinton	Respond to of 108704

he depends on several big ifs.... 1)As long as money velocity turns to favorable, government can pull out the excess liquidity before it becomes inflationary. 2)The longest recession ever was 16 months. He thinks best case we entered into a recession in November of 2007 or worst case January 2008. This would put us well into the later half of the cycle, which will be painful but short. 3) Governments will drive LIBOR down to force interbank lending. (for how long and how low) 4)corporate profits have been high ,but if consumers are saving the profits will evaporate.... 5)The market will not rally until bond yields come down on the long end. Right now you should be in munis of solid states that are yielding 7% - 8% risk free. .Please remember that these guys are LT investors do not have the ST pressures on them that most americans do.....ie..high debt going into a period of increasing unemployment and lower spending. An important point also would be that ...we may face a series of increasingly deeper recessions accompanied by increasingly higher inflation.(stagflation) To set the base for a 15 year bull run all bad debt needs to be expunged from the economy.

To: ames who wrote (73142)	10/26/2008 1:30:27 AM
From: c.hinton	Respond to of 108704

re... "Europe is much worse off than the U.S. in terms of bank health. " "The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that Western European banks hold almost all the exposure to the emerging market bubble, now busting with spectacular effect. They account for three-quarters of the total $4.7 trillion £2.96 trillion) in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia extended during the global credit boom – a sum that vastly exceeds the scale of both the US sub-prime and Alt-A debacles" telegraph.co.uk