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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marek_wojna who wrote (70682)	10/26/2008 3:30:57 PM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Ravens intelligent? Compared with other birds perhaps, but they won't be doing Fourier transforms in CDMA code any time soon. But yes, ravens are interesting and obviously have some brain activity. I won't hire one to mind my portfolio even if they are good savers. When Japan had their bust, they had the benefit of a much larger global economy to act as an externality to sell to and buy from. The USA is so big and many other countries are in the same boat so there isn't any externality this time around. So this could be much more interesting than Japan's bust which took the stock market from 40,000 nearly 20 years ago to 8,000 now. If the Dow travels from 13,000 to 2,500 over the next 20 years, a lot of people will consider it a poor investment. Iceland is unlikely to "bounce back" and neither are the $trillions, which were not even real, going to bounce back. Because somebody buys one house for $1 million using a 100% mortgage in which they lied about their income, doesn't mean all houses are worth $1 million and that they can all be sold for that in a fire sale. People imagined they were a lot more wealthy than they really were. Iceland borrowed heavily. Having a lot of money in the bank from borrowing it doesn't mean they are wealthy. New Zealand is going to learn about that [the process has started]. Japanese are repatriating their money and NZ$ has dropped from 83 yen to 53 yen. More to go. NZ is full of borrowed money. It's going to be very ugly. Productive people are fleeing the place in droves. Tourism is down. When hordes of welfare bludgers are cut off from their cash supply, the minimum wage is going to seem very high. Or the government will do as normal and adopt Zimbabwe strategy with equivalent social outcomes. Mqurice