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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (70685)	10/26/2008 10:48:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Respond to of 74559

C2, there hasn't been significant deregulation in the last decade when the absurd loans were agreed. So blaming deregulation is clutching at straws. But as happened in NZ in the 1980s before the big bust in 1987, deregulation can indeed result in people going nuts on debt [those who are impulsive, greedy, ignorant etc]. We the cautiously contemplative dodged that one too and profited during the process. It's surprising [not really] that NZ has done the same but much much worse than their 1980s craziness, borrowing $100 billion from Japan to reprice NZ houses up by a factor of 2, 3 or 4 [priced in gold/US$/yen]. I suppose they thought house investment was as safe as houses and as good as gold and the mantra was that house prices never go down. So they didn't realize they were speculating just as people did in the 1980s. They thought investing in housing was safe and wisely [they thought] kept out of the stock market. They probably felt vindicated because of the Y2K Biotelecosmictechdot.com bust which reaffirmed their avoidance of shares in favour of debt-funded housing investment/speculation. Mqurice

To: carranza2 who wrote (70685)	10/27/2008 3:58:29 AM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Good grief, I log off for a few hours, come back and the Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai are zooming down. Gold, platinum, oil, down . NZ$ down more and again and still. This is world record declining. Lots of liquidation going on and the $700 billion saving fund is sitting on the sidelines and that's like a boy with his finger in the dyke anyway. Nikkei down to 30 year lows. Hang Seng back to the Asian Contagion era. Silly OPEC cutting production is irrelevant [they don't have a choice because the ships aren't there to load it at the end of the pipeline]. I turned down NZ$1 for US45c 8 years ago. It looks as though I'll get the chance to take a 45c offer again. Or 40c. Or 35c..... = half price from just a year ago. Markets can do silly things for a longggggg time. But it's unwinding time now. Mqurice