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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave who wrote (160538)	10/28/2008 11:57:57 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

October 28, 2008 Tampa home prices down, but not as wildly as out West Local home prices down 18.1 percent in August. Pretty familiar, huh? blogs.tampabay.com That's the latest from the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, which lags other indexes by a month, but wins plaudits for its supposed accuracy. Repeating the pattern of much of this year, Tampa was 7th worst on the 20-city Case-Shiller index. Aside from Miami, most of the blood was spilled out West. Phoenix, Las Vegas and Miami showed price declines of about 30 percent. Also harder hit than Tampa were San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego. Tampa's home prices have receded to December 2004 levels. The region's peak price wasn't reached until July 2006, and housing values in August had fallen 27 percent below that. Our market will likely see further depreciation, but we've probably seen the worst already. Here's information and charts directly from Case-Shiller's site. Posted by James Thorner at 10:35:06 AM on October 28, 2008 in \| Permalink Comments "we've probably seen the worst already" Watch the CNBC interview with David Blitzer of S&P. He forecasts another leg down for the Tampa market, due to the worsening situation for foreclosures. cnbc.com Posted by: Tino \| October 28, 2008 at 01:57 PM "we've probably seen the worst already" I'm sorry to say, but we have not seen the end of the drop in home prices for the Tampa Bay area. The factors behind it, a very large inventory that includes the "hidden inventory" or shadow market, high foreclosure rate, high unemployment, lack of higher paying jobs, continued credit crunch, inability of the consumer to come up with a 20% or more downpayment, high insurance costs, high property taxes, medium property values still not in-line with medium incomes and a declining population. One other measure is that foreclosures are increasing at an alarming rate that is much worse than in the past couple of years. Posted by: Fuzzy Bear \| October 28, 2008 at 03:36 PM "we've probably seen the worst already" I doubt we have seen the worst as the worst is often a lagging indicator. My reasoning, High inventory of unsold homes including the "hidden inventory" or shadow market, high number of foreclosures, increasing numbers of foreclosures exceeding the past two years, elevated unemployment numbers, lack of higher paying jobs, wages not keeping pace with inflation, medium incomes are not in-line with the medium home prices, high insurance costs, high property taxes, the consumers inability to come up with a 20% or greater downpayment, strict lending standards, the continued credit crisis and lastly a lack of consumer confidence which is causing many to leave the area. Posted by: Fuzzy Bear \| October 28, 2008 at 03:46 PM I'll stand by the "we've probably seen the worst" if measured in percentage price drop. I suspect, as Fuzzy has said before, we could fall another 10-15 percent. But that's nowhere near the 27 percent we've already lost. If it falls an additional 28 percent, we'll all be living in Mongolian yurts... Posted by: James Thorner \| October 28, 2008 at 04:06 PM