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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (92238)	10/28/2008 10:27:26 AM
From: JohnM	Respond to of 541522

Interesting patterns among white voters, via the Washington Post. Very bad for Obama in the south, as bad as McGovern. But much better in other regions. ------------------------------------ Post-ABC Tracking: In the Final Week The Washington Post-ABC News daily tracking poll shows Barack Obama kicking off the final full week of campaigning with a seven-point lead over John McCain, but beneath the nationwide number are big regional and racial differences. Obama is outperforming any Democrat back to Jimmy Carter among white voters, getting 45 percent to McCain's 52 percent. But in the South, it is a very different story. Obama fares worse among Southern whites than any Democrat since George McGovern in 1972. Whites in the East and West tilt narrowly toward Obama (he's up 8 and 7 points, respectively), and the two run about evenly among those in the Midwest. By contrast, Southern whites break more than 2 to 1 for McCain, 65 percent to 32 percent. That stark divide is not simply a partisan difference. While white Democrats outside the South give Obama margins of 80 points or more, he leads by a more modest 65 points among white Southern Democrats. The Democrat is up 55 points among liberal whites in the region, far under his performance among those voters elsewhere, where he is up by 79 points. Southern white independents are also far more likely than politically independent whites in other regions to support McCain: They break 62 to 33 percent in his favor. White independents in the West favor Obama by a similarly wide margin, 63 to 34 percent. White political independents in the East and Midwest divide much more evenly. Among non-whites, it is the West that does not fit the pattern. There, Obama holds a 41-point lead among non-whites, compared with 65 points in the East, 70 in the Midwest and 68 in the South. And that difference stems largely from a key demographic difference. Non-whites in the West are far more likely to be Hispanic, while in the other three regions, non-whites are more apt to be African American. Both groups heavily favor Obama, but the margin among Hispanic likely voters (70 percent Obama to 26 percent McCain) is narrower than among black voters (96 percent for Obama, 2 percent McCain). Nationwide, interest in the contest remains high in this final week: six in 10 registered voters said they are following "very closely," rising to 67 percent among those most likely to vote. Just 5 percent of likely voters said they are paying little attention to the contest. But the new poll shows some small signs voters are beginning to grow weary of the campaign. Enthusiasm for both candidates has dipped a bit, with high enthusiasm among Obama's supporters down to 66 percent from a high of 71 reached late last week, while 36 percent of McCain's backers are "very" enthusiastic about his candidacy, a slight decline from a 40 percent high point early last week. Full data from the Post-ABC tracking poll can be found here. voices.washingtonpost.com

To: Dale Baker who wrote (92238)	10/28/2008 11:03:11 AM
From: Suma	Respond to of 541522

I have contributed to the Obama campaign and wrote a letter to him advising he visit the Sarasota,Bradenton area as McCain had done. AND in the Sarasota paper this morning it was announced that Obama is planning a surprise visit to Sarasota on Thursday. McCain was indoors at an Arena. Obama is going to be outdoors at the stadium. Open to all and free. I wrote to all my Democratic friends... ONLY FIVE and told them to go. I wish I were home now. I also asked him to visit the Blowing Rock , Boone, Banner Elk,Valle Cruces,West Jefferson, Todd area. Hillary was here. He was at Appalachian State earlier in his campaign. I think he could impact here but he chooses to go to large cities in NC. Both these States are still up for grab as far as I can see.