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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (430855)	10/28/2008 2:40:39 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1574772

No, this is not a liberal blog telling its readers to not vote for Stevens. REDSTATE Don't Vote For Ted Stevens For Senate or Don Young for House At Large in Alaska Party Loyalty Has Its Limits Posted by: The Directors Monday, October 27, 2008 at 03:52PM CDT Note - A previous version of this post was entitled "RedState Endorses Mark Begich, Democrat For Senate, and Ethan Berkowitz, Democrat for House At Large in Alaska." We have changed the title and amended the post to retract the formal endorsement out of respect for RedState Contributors who did not feel they could be associated in good conscience with an endorsement of two pro-abortion Democrats (though we note that Ted Stevens is also not pro-life). However, our point remains: the GOP, the conservative cause and even specifically the pro-life cause will be better off if Stevens and Young are defeated and the tarnish they carry with them are excised from the GOP. We stand at a perilous moment in American politics, with thereal possibility that the Democrats could get to 60 votes in the Senate. This is no time for litmus tests of party loyalty, for abandoning our own. But we must make one exception: good conscience compels us to advise Alaskans not to vote for Ted Stevens for Senate or Don Young for the at-large House seat in Alaska. We leave it to the individual voter whether to abstain or take the step of voting affirmatively for Mark Begich, the Democrat mayor of Anchorage, and candidate for the U.S. Senate, or for Ethan Berkowitz for the at-large House seat in Alaska. We have no illusions that Begich will be a good Senator (although perhaps he can bring to DC some bipartisan oomph to theneed to exploit Alaska's energy resources for the good of the nation), or Berkowitz a good Congressman. But Ted Stevens and Don Young have been a pox on the Republican house for too long - too addicted to the pork barrel, too fast and loose with ethics. Stevens' conviction in federal court today is the exclamation pointon an era in Republican politics in general and Alaska politics in particular that needs to end (and which Gov. Sarah Palin has been battling to clean up). Republicans need to clean our own house. Washington cannot too soon see the end of Stevens and Young. redstate.com

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (430855)	10/28/2008 9:27:06 PM
From: i-node	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1574772

>>> According to the electoral model, McCain's odds are long. While I agree that it is likely Obama will win, I think there is a great deal of uncertainty about how likely it is. The polls are just not very helpful this year. There are some obvious outliers, like Newsweek's showing the double-digit lead. OTOH, there are 3x the number of polls as usual, and these are largely run by amateurs at universities and news organizations with a built-in bias. For example, some polls are oversampling Dems by a large factor in an effort to get a particular result. Bottom line, you can't make much out of the polls without a lot of deep digging which I'm not willing to do. One of the most bogus aspects of the polling this year is the so-called Real Clear Politics Averages. These are just total nonsense, particularly at this stage of the game, since polls more than a day or two old are pretty meaningless, and outliers are not thrown out as they should be. More than anything the media bias seems to me to make many of the polls all but meaningless. If you look at those which have some credibility, it could be a 2-point lead for Obama or 6-points. Even the more credible polls like Zogby, Rasmussen, and Gallup, are subject unusual variation due to the necessity of guessing at turnout by various demographics. Even with Gallup's split daily poll, it is hard to draw any real conclusions. Yes, Obama is doing an exception job of whipping up turnout, but it is difficult to conclude that McCain supporters won't turn out on their own -- historically, Republican turnout tends not to need reminding to show up. I think Obama is likely to win, but you cannot rule McCain out of it at this point.