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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (112725)	10/28/2008 11:05:42 PM
From: Sweet Ol	3 Recommendations Respond to of 206191

Guys, one of the big reasons gas consumption went down in the early 80's was all those early 70's cars were being retired. Remember that in about '73 they had to put in all the emission controls and such that killed gas mileage on all cars for a number of years until the car companies began building better products. Ten year later those cars that got 10 mpg were replaced with Toyotas and Hondas that got 20+ mpg. I well remember saying goodbye to my 1973 Plymouth Fury Station Wagon that only got over 10 mpg going downhill!!! Eventually the population increase offset the demise of the junkers and consumption started going up again. I think that was a bigger factor than the recession. Best to all, JRH

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (112725)	10/29/2008 3:22:38 AM
From: 8bits	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206191

que, my thinking is that the current recession is going to be worse than the '80-'82 recession (which until this one was the worst recession in the last 30 years). Ahh yes, I remember that time, I was turned down for a job that paid $0.15 an hour ... (to remove asbestos from older buildings) they had too many applicants. My hometown's (stated) unemployment rate was around 18%. Although there was a marked drop in demand in the US for petroleum in the from 80-83 it looks like what really led to a sharp drop in oil prices 86 was a supply response. (An increase over time by non-Opec producers that offset the losses from the Iran/Iraq war plus the Saudis substantially increasing their production in early 1986..) As shown by both the WTRG and the EIA graphs, US consumption did not bottom out until early '83, even though oil prices had been steadily declining starting more than a year earlier. Given the marked decrease in petroleum consumption in the US (and likely the rest of the OECD) from 80 to 83 I am surprised that the price of a barrel of oil didn't drop further than it did. (by 25%) For reference: wtrg.com As Matt Simmons pointed out recently, if China and India start using as much oil per capita as Mexico (and as they say in those physics problems in school "all other factors being equal" ) the world will need to produce 80% more oil than it does now. Given the lack of new discoveries this doesn't seem remotely possible. Optimally the easing of oil prices may give engineers a little more breathing room to come up with solutions but all the alternatives I have seen so far seem to be incremental or not scalable. The inevitable seems to be that the OECD (and most especially the US..) will be making substantial lifestyle changes in the next decade or so.