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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robin Plunder who wrote (13687)	10/29/2008 5:51:06 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71456

The broad commodity complex can bounce, but I am not sure about the end of the bear, since the impact of the global melt on the global economy cannot be discounted. Gold is different (at times), since it becomes money, and XAU,HUI,GDX are simply severely out of whack with the current price of gold. There is no doubt in my mind that if US goes into a currency crisis spiral, the impact of that on the rest of the exporting World and specifically China will be very deflationary. In that regard I disagree with the "smart man". Who is gonna be speedier, USD dropping or commodities dropping? That's the question. Of course, we'll see what they do, and if the World follows the Fed into mindless printing, we'll see global Weimarization. On the other hand, I think New World Order of some kind will emerge as a result of this crisis, with diminished role of USD in the global trade - perhaps, severely so. I'm also not sure if we should be bullish or bearish on US manufacturing at this time. It has been in a bear market for decades, and the currency crisis should provide a necessary huge boost, while Weimarization of USA will kill it.