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Biotech / Medical : Calypte Biomedical Corporation (CALY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gurupup who wrote (168)	10/22/1997 12:17:00 AM
From: Webster Groves	Respond to of 381

Sorry for the misunderstanding, but I was talking about the stock price, not the company. I agree it's a buy now at current price. Thanks for the new info, too. As you are undoubtedly aware by now..... When Skipard talks.......people listen. -wg

To: Gurupup who wrote (168)	10/22/1997 1:21:00 AM
From: Clayleas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 381

To all: I've run a few numbers based on this deal and they support what Skip is saying. Based on today's closing price of $5.25 and the new outstanding of 13.1MM shares, the market cap for CALY is $68.7MM and that includes $10MM new cash (est. $12MM cash total). As a basis for comparison, I looked at the company in the first half of this year (1H97). During that period, the stock traded in a range of $6-$8 (use $7) giving a total market cap of $73.5MM or about $5MM more than current. Now there are 2 adjustments that have to be made to give the equivalent of the CALY we have today. - First, the company had on average about $6MM less cash in 1H97 than it has now. So I will add that in, giving $79.5MM. - Second, and even more significanly, the company in 1H97 had not yet gained FDA approval for the Cambridge confirmatory test. Based on the market movement after the FDA gave its approval, I would put the value of the approval at about $21MM ($2 per share X 10.5MM shares). Adding the $21MM gives us $100.5MM total market cap for the equivalent of today's CALY. If the stock was fairly valued in 1H97, then using the current share count of 13.1MM, I would therefore expect the stock to be fairly valued now at about $7.50 ($100.5/13.1MM shares = $7.67, discounted a bit to account for the need to get FDA labelling approval). This is not a recommendation to buy. As usual, do your own DD. I welcome any comments on this analysis. Jim