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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rambi who wrote (92396)	10/29/2008 10:48:01 AM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 541659

Never underestimate the power of rationalization when you're stuck deep in a well of denial. I am seeing the number of undecideds dropping to 2-3% in some polls, in states where Obama has scored a steady 50-53% for some time now. So McCain and Palin have to peel away voters who have made up their mind to vote for Obama, and do it with 4-5% of the electorate in the next six days while the media coverage of their campaign is all about backbiting and disarray. Stranger things have happened, I suppose.

To: Rambi who wrote (92396)	10/29/2008 10:58:16 AM
From: Sam	Respond to of 541659

Yeah, and Rove said that Republicans would win in '06.

To: Rambi who wrote (92396)	10/29/2008 12:57:35 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 541659

Rambi, I just read the "internal memo" that pfpers are citing that claims that the race is really too close to call. It is here: realclearpolitics.com Honestly, I find it goofy. For example, he says: "1. We are witnessing a significant shift across the battleground states. The race has moved significantly over the past week, closing to essentially tied on the last two-day roll." There is zero evidence of that, from what I can see. In fact, just the opposite is happening, at least according to RCP stats and averages. Virtually every battleground state has been moving in Obama's favor over the past few weeks, including the last few days. I checked individual states like FL, MO, NH, MN, PA, OH, VA, NC, and they have all been moving toward Obama. It would be too long to list them all here, but you can check them yourself at www.realclearpolitics.com, and click on "Polls" and "Battleground states," looking at each one. Below is a summary of the changes that RCP has made since Oct 20 of how they see each state. Note that virtually every change has been in Obama's favor. And when one went in McCain's favor one day, the next time it change it went in Obama's favor (e.g., NH has bounced back and forth, with the latest rating being "Leaning Obama" on 10/28). The only other change in McCain's favor was WV, which went from Toss Up to Leaning McCain. But even that is optimistic for Obama--if McCain was actually doing well or even better by now, WV should have been "Solid McCain" by now. Date State Previous Status Current Status RCP Electoral Count RCP National Avg. 10/29 Nevada Toss Up »»» Leaning Obama Obama 311 - McCain 157 Obama +5.9 10/28 New Hampshire Leaning Obama »»» Solid Obama Obama 306 - McCain 157 Obama +6.7 10/27 Arizona Solid McCain »»» Leaning McCain Obama 306 - McCain 157 Obama +7.0 10/27 New Hampshire Solid Obama »»» Leaning Obama Obama 306 - McCain 157 Obama +7.0 10/26 New Hampshire Leaning Obama »»» Solid Obama Obama 306 - McCain 157 Obama +7.6 10/24 New Hampshire Solid Obama »»» Leaning Obama Obama 306 - McCain 157 Obama +7.9 10/23 Montana Leaning McCain »»» Toss Up Obama 306 - McCain 157 Obama +7.5 10/23 Ohio Toss Up »»» Leaning Obama Obama 306 - McCain 157 Obama +7.5 10/21 West Virginia Toss Up »»» Leaning McCain Obama 286 - McCain 160 Obama +7.2 10/20 Minnesota Leaning Obama »»» Solid Obama Obama 286 - McCain 155 Obama +5.8 realclearpolitics.com