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To: pat mudge who wrote (256)	10/22/1997 9:10:00 AM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5853

Pat, >I also wonder what will happen when their T-1 customers go to someone else for ADSL because it's cheaper. Hmmmm...< Yes, I've thought of this one for a long time, and even done some business case modeling for it. What do I use here, five year straight line? Better yet, what do the BOCs use? <g> Oddly enough, there are only a handful of independent (non-LEC) ventures sparsely distributed throughout the country who are offering this currently, at least that I am aware of, in relative terms. Realtor Beck in Illinois with AIS, Interaccess, Goodnet in NY (Trump Towers). Siemens Nixdorf's FreeBeeTV in some apartment building, a few ISPs, a few startups in Massachusetts, to name a few, who have yet to realize a business justification in most instances. Even where initiatives are set to address this opportunity (using xDSL technology), there seem to be deliberate and often questionable maneuvers on the parts of the powers that be to stall things, e.g., US West's pulling back of the LADS tariff for dark copper. "Reverse ADSL effect" notwithstanding, give me a break. These offerings have been on the books for decades. Where does this one stand? Do you happen to know? Maybe the monkey knows something that the rest of us don't know. They're in this for the ROI, not for altruistic reasons associated with participation in the global village. These are two sometimes opposing sets of incentives. I suspect that their (LEC's) more global incentives are based on the enhancements that their DSLAMs and RAMs will allow for, over time, once the second and third rounds of experimentation in the field are done with. In addition to the fundamental laws of lethargy that the BOCs are prone to (in addition to their clinical obsession with the delivery of perceived quality of services that they offer, which I can't really gig them for), putting together an ATM over ADSL environment is not as straightforward or simplified as putting in the basic model. This is apparently the approach that they are taking. This in itself will only add time to the process, since I don't see a tendency to use a simplified, "incrementalist" approach in this regard. Who knows? By the time they're done with their model, a competitor may already have D-WDM enclosures mounted on poles in our residential areas! Regards, Frank