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To: sepku who wrote (545)	10/22/1997 2:23:00 AM
From: Frost Byte	Respond to of 29970

Cable Modems Winning Broadband Market - Report................ ****Cable Modems Winning Broadband Market - Report 10/21/97 TEMPE, ARIZONA, U.S.A., 1997 OCT 21 (NB) -- By Bill Pietrucha. The fight to control the home and business high-speed broadband data services markets is entering the final rounds, and it looks like cable modems will take the North American residential market away from data subscriber links (xDSL) by points, if not by a total knockout. That's one of the conclusions reached by a new market study released by Forward Concepts, which compared the battle to a conflict between the telephone companies and the cable operators. Cable modems will win the lion's share of the North American residential access market, the study concludes, growing to an installed base of over seven million units, with unit prices falling below $150 by the year 2002. Cable modems, which will beat the residential DSL base by more than four-fold in the North American market, also is forecast to beat xDSL in the worldwide market, but not by as commanding a margin, the study notes. The study, which states that the demand for increased bandwidth 'is nearly insatiable,' notes, however, that the higher cost of high bandwidth services is a major concern for residential users. Because of the higher cost concerns, the study notes, the worldwide residential broadband access installed base is forecast to 20 million users by the year 2002; a formidable number, but not enough to support the vast numbers of players in today's broadband modem industry. According to the report, xDSL modems, and ADSL in particular, will have a much tougher cost challenge, 'since massive amounts of digital signal processing (DSP) horsepower are required to squeeze up to eight megabits-per-second (Mbps) of data over copper wires originally designed to carry only analog voice.' Serious questions remain about the ability to make DSL work on real telephone lines now in the ground. Details are available on line at fwdconcepts.com and a free brochure is available from Forward Concepts, 1575 W. University Dr., Suite 111, Tempe, AZ 85281, tel: 602/968-3759 or at fc@fwdconcepts.com via email.

To: sepku who wrote (545)	10/22/1997 7:14:00 AM
From: Bob Zacks	Respond to of 29970

Bill , satellite may be a great system for reception to ones home but not for transmission. I don't see how every home could buy an expensive transmiter or how a single satellite could receive millions of transmissions at the same time and relay those signals back to the hub and vesa versa. Not to mention the time to develope this system, deploy it, and sell it . @home has a big head start.

To: sepku who wrote (545)	11/11/1997 3:27:00 AM
From: JPM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Just some numbers... Assume ATHM signs up 20Million consumers by 2010... this represents about 33% of the total market that is serviced by cable (and a shrinking one at that)... assume $40 per month, or approx. $500 per year... total revs.... 20MM x $500 = 10 billion dollars 65% goes to cable companies 35% goes to ATHM.. so maximum revs... 3.5 billion.... yet ATMH already has a market cap of 2.5 billion and the market is virually 100% up for grabs... it seems like a short to me. Jp