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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnM who wrote (92914)	11/1/2008 11:38:32 AM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 541988

October surprise? Probably not THE one, but one of the several we'll see over the next few days. ---------------------------- Breaking the Law for McCain You may have noticed that the AP is reporting that Barack Obama's aunt (who he does not seem to have a relationship with) was denied asylum in the US four years ago and is now living illegally in Boston. Convenient timing, ain't it? The real story, though, is down in the third paragraph of the AP story ... Information about the deportation case was disclosed and confirmed by two separate sources, one of them a federal law enforcement official. The information they made available is known to officials in the federal government, but the AP could not establish whether anyone at a political level in the Bush administration or in the McCain campaign had been involved in its release. That's about as transparent a red flag as an outfit like the AP is usually willing to give. And there you have it. Quite likely working in concert with the McCain campaign, a Bush administration official is leaking details on an immigration case to try to help McCain three days before the election. It's shades of Bush I's riffling through Bill Clinton's passport files just before the 1992 election in a desperate last minute gambit as they were swirling down the drain. Late Update: Note too that the story first got leaked to the Times of London, a Murdoch paper with a history of taking planted stories from Republicans for siphoning back into the US media. --Josh Marshall talkingpointsmemo.com

To: JohnM who wrote (92914)	11/1/2008 12:17:26 PM
From: biotech_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 541988

That's looks like a 8-10 point average lead, a little lower than it's been. But Nate Silver crunches some numbers and comes up with an 89% chance of Obama winning EVEN if he loses PA Pennsylvania Sanity Check Suppose that Barack Obama were to concede Pennsylvania's electoral votes. Literally, concede them. Throw 'em back, like a Chase Utley home run at a Cubs' game. How often would he still win the election? ...89.0% of the time, according to our most recent run of simulations, along with another 2.4% of outcomes that ended in ties. This is because in the vast majority of our simulations, Obama either: a) was winning at least 291 electoral votes, meaning that he could drop Pennsylvania's 21 and still be over 270, and/or b) was winning at least 270 electoral votes, while already being projected to lose Pennsylvania in the first place. (a) was much, much more common than (b), obviously. -- Nate Silver at 10:02 AM fivethirtyeight.com