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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (41815)	11/2/2008 6:38:05 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 149317

Yepsen: Obama may lead Democratic landslide desmoinesregister.com by DAVID YEPSEN The Des Moines Register November 2, 2008 McPain. Barack Obama is beating John McCain in Iowa by a whopping 17 percentage points, according to the Iowa Poll published in today's Register. Obama gets 54 percent of the vote, while McCain captures 37 percent among likely voters, according to the survey. If that kind of margin is reflected in what happens on Election Day, it would be the largest presidential margin in Iowa since Richard Nixon beat George McGovern by 17.1 percentage points in the state in 1972. Obama's lead in the poll is almost three times what his average lead is nationally. So much for Iowa being a "battleground" or "tossup" state this time. In fact, the poll indicates a Democratic landslide may be in the offing in Iowa. The poll shows Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin beating his Republican challenger, Christopher Reed, by 57 percent to 31 percent. If Harkin wins by a margin like that - 26 points - it would be his biggest margin in his five general election campaigns for the Senate. Both Obama and Harkin have widened their margins since September. (The Iowa Poll of 814 likely voters was taken Tuesday through Friday of last week and has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.) The survey's presidential findings also mirror numbers found by other pollsters in Iowa. A SurveyUSA poll taken Tuesday-Wednesday showed Obama ahead by 15 points, while a Research2000 poll taken Monday-Wednesday showed Obama up by 14. In 2000 and 2004, Republican George W. Bush closed in on his Democratic rivals in the final weeks of the campaign. This time, the Democrat is pulling away. In recent days, both McCain and Obama have spent time in the state. So has McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin, who is scheduled to be in Dubuque on Monday. McCain's effort doesn't look to be making much difference. Obama took a 12-point lead in September and has only built upon it. If you look at the Realclearpolitics.com averages of all the polls, the closest McCain came to Obama in Iowa was in early September, when he closed Obama's lead to an average of only 5 points. Such poor numbers threaten to have a demoralizing effect among Republicans and an energizing one among Democrats. If Democrats smell victory and head to the polls while Republicans are in a funk and stay at home (as happened in the 1974 Watergate election), then Obama's landslide could bury other GOP candidates down the ballot. So what went right for Obama in Iowa? What went wrong for McCain? In both cases, the answer is just about everything, and it's not real complicated. Like other Americans, Iowans see the country as headed in the wrong direction. McCain's party holds the White House, and voters hold that party accountable. Republicans also drifted away from many of their traditional principles. The war in Iraq, high-deficit spending and political corruption all worked to sour voters on the GOP brand. McCain didn't campaign much in the Iowa caucuses and alienated some Iowans by bashing ethanol and farm subsidies. Obama also ran a textbook campaign in Iowa and kept building on the organization that led him to a victory in the caucuses. Obama succeeded in turning out many new first-time voters and Democrats who weren't regular voters. McCain, by contrast, picked Palin to be his running mate in an effort to gin up support in the party's base of evangelical voters. He seems to have built nothing on top of that base. According to the poll, only 30 percent of Iowa's voters say they are "evangelical" or "born again," and not all of those are McCain voters.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (41815)	11/2/2008 6:43:06 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 149317

Baseball stats guru Nate Silver sees election landslide for Barack Obama nydailynews.com

To: RetiredNow who wrote (41815)	11/3/2008 12:11:21 AM
From: stockman_scott	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 149317

Obama's lead inching up in these composites... tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com TPM Track Composite: Obama's Lead Keeps Growing By Eric Kleefeld - November 2, 2008, 5:16PM Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Barack Obama's lead is continuing to inch upwards in the daily tracking polls, undoing much of the progress that John McCain made about a week ago: • Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-42% lead from yesterday. • Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • ABC/Washington Post: Obama 54%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-44% Obama lead yesterday • Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead from yesterday. • Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead from yesterday. Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.5%-44.2%, a lead of 7.3 points, compared to the 51.2%-44.1% Obama lead from yesterday. Counting today, Obama's lead has increased by small amounts in the last four consecutive Composites.