Poll shows Patchwork Nation communities tilting to Obama
Dante Chinni
Posted: 11.03.2008 / 8:26 AM EST
csmonitor.com
Even before a single vote is cast on Election Day, the 2008 presidential race is being called transformative and the beginning of a new era in American politics. When all the votes are tallied, it’s possible that 2008 may indeed be looked at as a watershed – but not just because polls indicate that the United States may have its first African-American president.
A look at some recent presidential poll results through the framework of Patchwork Nation shows Sen. Barack Obama, a Democrat, besting Sen. John McCain in nine of our 11 county types. That is a complete reversal from 2004, when President Bush won nine of the 11 types.
The figures also indicate that Senator Obama is running particularly strong in the three battleground county types we identified earlier this year – the small-town “Service Worker Centers,” the growing and diversifying “Boom Towns,” and the wealthier, educated “Monied ’Burbs.” His lead is in double digits in all those community types, according to the poll.
These results were calculated using last week’s Pew Research Center poll. It’s just one of many polls taken in recent days, and it shows a large lead for Obama overall among likely voters (53 percent to 38 percent). The poll took pains to survey those who have only a cellphone (no land line), and it had a high number of 18- to 24-year-old voters, according to Patchwork Nation consultant James Gimpel, a professor of government at the University of Maryland at College Park.
The results are not meant to be solid predictors, but still, they’re noteworthy, particularly among some of Patchwork Nation’s county types.
The most crucial finding in the poll is something we’ve noticed anecdotally as well in recent weeks: a big boost of support for Obama in “Monied ’Burb” communities. The poll numbers indicate that Obama is winning these counties roughly 61 percent to 39 percent.
Even if those numbers are somewhat overstated, any margin in double digits would be a massive lift for Obama. These counties were split almost evenly between Mr. Bush and Sen. John Kerry in 2004, with Senator Kerry winning by fractions of a percent.
The “Monied ’Burb” communities are crucial not only because they hold more than 84 million people, but also because they also make up big portions of the electorate in key states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia.
The poll numbers also indicate that Obama has big leads over Senator McCain in “Boom Towns” (where he leads 63 percent to 37 percent) and in “Service Worker Centers” (58 percent to 42 percent). Again, even if these numbers are overstated, smaller leads in these community types would be significant for Obama.
Many of the “Boom Town” counties have been hammered by the housing crunch and foreclosures, and they are heavily represented in Florida. The “Service Worker Center” counties, meanwhile, have been feeling the bumps of the economic downturn all year, and they make up big parts of Iowa, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico. All these states will probably be important in the vote.
For McCain, comfort can be found in two county types – the socially conservative “Evangelical Epicenter” locales and the aging “Emptying Nest” places. He’s winning those two community types, but by slightly smaller margins than Bush won them in 2004.
It appears that the selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as McCain’s running mate may be helping him in the “Evangelical Epicenters.” He was having a hard time in these places earlier in the campaign, but according to this poll, he leads them convincingly – 61 percent to 39 percent.
A few cautions about the results are in order, however. First, it’s possible that the numbers may be the result of oversampling of Democrats. For example, the poll shows Obama leading in rural, agricultural “Tractor Country” counties, when Patchwork Nation reporting has shown them to be more conservative.
And voter turnout could end up being very important among two key county types.
This set of poll numbers indicates that Obama is winning in “Minority Central” counties (with large African-American populations) and “Immigration Nation” locales (with many Latinos). Both of those types went for Bush in 2004, in part due to low turnout.
Our reporting and other polls suggest the “Immigration Nation” counties are leaning heavily toward Obama, while the “Minority Central” locales might be closer. Large turnout in those communities could tip the balance to Obama in close states like North Carolina and Colorado.
And what of the much-ballyhooed youth vote? It seems that every four years, the media report that the election will be one for record turnout, and then little materializes.
Obama has spent a lot of time organizing and registering in college towns, as we have noted. But judging by these poll numbers, there may not be the huge youth turnout that some expect. Although Obama wins our younger “Campus and Careers” county type in this poll (about 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent), the numbers are closer than in other types.
Again, these are just poll numbers, not actual results. If there has been any lesson in this election full of surprises, it has been to be ready for the unexpected.
Still, the gaps, particularly in key Patchwork Nation communities, are wide. And if Tuesday night’s results look anything like these numbers, 2008 may be the election that shakes off the old voting patterns for something else. |
