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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (432653)	11/4/2008 12:44:15 PM
From: bentway	Respond to of 1571812

"Nothing like a recession to "cure" America's "addiction to oil."" We're still addicted. When crack gets cheap, addicts don't quit buying. They just need to steal less.

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (432653)	11/4/2008 12:44:49 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 1571812

Demand destructon is beginning to work... Folks, latest revised consumption data is in ... it is even better than I had hoped. A major milestone reached and breached. US oil consumption in August now 11% below 2005 peak If anybody feels inclined to blame August demand on hurricanes, note that Gustav didn't make landfall until Sept 1. In 2005, Katrina hit on August 29. In addition, this past August we used only 3.3% more oil than we did in August of 1978 exactly 3 decades before. Some fun facts comparing August of 30 years ago with the present: a)There are currently 51% more Americans employed than there were in 1978. b) The population is 37% larger. c) The economy is greater by 130%. d) Inflation is currently lower (5% versus 8%). e) Unemployment is a tad higher (6.1% versus 5.9%). We had a few tough years ahead of us back then and, even more so, do we now. Last spring, I bought a bottle each of Johnny Walker Red, Black and Green. They were to be opened in celebration when US consumption during some month fell 10%, 20% and 30% respectively from its peak in previous years (). I'm saving my pennies to buy bottles of Gold and Blue to celebrate 40% and 50%. Well, It's only 10 a.m. but the Red is flowing. (The joys of telecommuting on Fridays!) So I ask the assembled company here at the Oil Drum: When will I (or my heirs, if they cooperate) get to taste the Black? I'll bet many of you say, "Never!" May I respectfully disagree. My guess is 2012 at the very latest. Bottoms up! ;-) But won't the next 9% reduction be much harder? Maybe, maybe not. As time passes, 2 things are happening and are certain to continue to happen: a)Better petroleum-saving products. b) We learn as individuals, households, and communities how to save oil. It becomes part of the culture. So a decent answer might be... If we had to chop another 9% over the next year, it would be harder. But if it's done over a longer time period -- say 5 years -- the difficulty level might be about the same or even easier. Since the price of oil has fallen so much, demand may revive a bit. If it does, that calls into question a pet expression peak oilers use: demand destruction. That which has been destroyed does not arise anew. There is one additional condition: the unemployment rate must be at or below 12% when the consumption milestone is reached. If it isn't, I'll wait till it falls to that level. I chose 12% as a cut-off because it's just above the peak reached in 1980. Not fun, but not catastrophic for the nation either. Datamunger on October 31, 2008 - 10:18am theoildrum.com