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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1968)	11/6/2008 12:04:50 PM
From: John Madarasz	1 Recommendation Respond to of 3209

If you do get a chance to post some charts...how about an updated chart of your $SPX Weekly "The "big C" with the i, ii, iii, iv and 3 updated levels/points? I'm curious to know if any rules were violated on the depth of the iii of 3 of B...and your labeling would be a big help defining that Thxs bro...and if it's too much trouble i understand completely... Best

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1968)	11/6/2008 3:01:49 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 3209

Still early days, but that JNJ triangle appears to be failing: Also, the long-term support for MMM at $65 appears to have just been backtested: DISCLOSURE: short both. `BC

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1968)	11/8/2008 9:03:37 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

Here I am, reviewing the 1973-4 bear in the DJIA - digging into the individual component stocks, when I started thinking "you know, a lot of these DJIA stocks were added recently. What I really need to be reading are the charts of the 1973 DJIA components through that bear." Despite my familiarity with market history, I was really shocked at how many of them were changed during this secular bull. Of the thirty present components, care to hazard a guess at how many were members of the index during the 1973 bear? `BC

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1968)	11/8/2008 9:15:00 AM
From: Perspective	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

Don't read this post - until you've answered my prior one! Here's a great little DJIA history: djindexes.com The DJIA started out as 12 companies, then expanded to 20. The timing of the expansion to 30 companies was perfect: 10/1/1928!!! Naturally, massive turnover in 1930-32. And of the present 30, how many were in the 1973 index? Only seven: en.wikipedia.org AA DD XOM GE GM PG UTX The 1973 components: Allied Chemical Aluminum Company of America American Can American Tel. & Tel. American Tobacco B Anaconda Copper Bethlehem Steel Chrysler Du Pont Eastman Kodak Company General Electric Company General Foods General Motors Corporation Goodyear International Harvester International Nickel International Paper Company Johns-Manville Owens-Illinois Glass Procter & Gamble Company Sears Roebuck & Company Standard Oil of California Standard Oil (N.J.) Swift & Company Texaco Incorporated Union Carbide United Aircraft U.S. Steel Westinghouse Electric Woolworth I wanted to see how "uniform" the move into the final low was. I guess that's going to be a challenge given how many of them no longer exist. Anybody got the historical data? `BC

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1968)	11/8/2008 11:15:46 AM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 3209

Here are six of the 1973 DJIA components through that bear - haven't dug up the rest yet. A few things seem to surface to me: the move into the final low was pretty uniform. Some fell early, some fell late, but they all bottomed, or were near their bottom, at the ultimate low. Of these, there were no holdouts. Another item: the 1974 low, despite how far down it was, was actually only really a probe of the 1970 low. We are in totally different territory here, with the bubble bursting. A 1974-like roadmap would have us break the 2002 lows, and retest from below, before building a lasting bottom for this cycle of the bear. `BC