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To: Rangle who wrote (38406)11/6/2008 6:29:01 PM
From: Bucky Katt  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 48461
 
My feeling is 99% of the experts aren't experts at all, i.e. it appears many of the emperors have no clothes.

A little backround>

Message 24797185



To: Rangle who wrote (38406)11/6/2008 7:32:40 PM
From: Bucky Katt  Respond to of 48461
 
Feels to me like we may see the market tread water for a few days, so I booked the put gains in the SPX & RUT, and they weren't too shabby, as one would expect when those indexes dump >10% over a 2 day period.

Not too many new lows being made the past 2 days, unlike the lists I posted last week.
Still looking for entry prices, maybe just use calls for the leverage...
__________________________________


The huge rate cut by the Bank of England early this morn was something, like desperation.

European central banks slashed their key rates to stave off prolonged recessions Thursday, with the Bank of England delivering a dramatic 1.5 percentage-point cut.

The Bank of England cut its key lending rate by a much deeper-than-expected 1.5 percentage point as it tries to temper a looming economic recession. The European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank also cut rates. (Nov. 6)

The U.K. central bank cut its key lending rate to 3% from 4.5%, signaling deep concern as the British economy struggles with falling house prices and sharply tighter credit conditions.

The European Central Bank, which makes monetary policy for the 15 countries that share the euro currency, cut its key rate by a half-percentage point to 3.25%, as expected. Switzerland's central bank joined in, cutting its key rate target by a half percentage point to 2% in an unusual between-meeting move. The Czech National Bank also cut its key rate by three-quarters of a point to 2.75%, a far bigger cut than analysts expected.
More on the Central Banks

Thursday's moves followed a round of emergency cuts less than a month ago, when the Bank of England and ECB cut their key rates by a half-point, in tandem with the U.S. Federal Reserve and two other central banks.

But the latest round of cuts failed to bolster markets meaningfully on Thursday, as the pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 fell 2.8% to 221.75.

The depth of the Bank of England cut caught many analysts by surprise. Debate in the U.K. had been whether the bank would cut by as much as three-quarters of a percentage point. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee has never cut its key rate by more than a half-point since it gained independence from the U.K. government in 1997. The central bank's key rate was last as low as 3% in 1954.

"It's a spectacular move and it confirms that the [central bank] has finally woken up to the seriousness of the situation facing the U.K. economy," said Jonathan Loynes, chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics in London. "But there's much more work to do."

The U.S. Federal Reserve's current interest-rate target is 1% -- a level Mr. Loynes expects the Bank of England to reach next year. Economists also expect the ECB to make another half-point cut in December and many see euro-area interest rates falling to around 2% by the middle of next year.

At a news conference following the ECB Governing Council's meeting, President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled policy makers envision further cuts, saying, "I don't exclude that we could decrease rates again."

Highlighting "sluggish domestic and external demand" and tighter credit conditions as factors depressing euro-zone growth, Mr. Trichet said policy makers expect inflation to fall sharply in coming months, reaching their preferred level of just below 2% next year. Inflation in October was 3.2%. Mr Trichet said the council had discussed cutting rates by three-quarters of a point but settled unanimously on the half-point move.

U.K. policy makers also explained their surprise move by noting that rapidly deteriorating growth prospects raise the specter of falling prices. The Bank of England targets an annual inflation rate of 2%. Commodity prices pushed U.K. inflation to 5.2% in September, but the central bank said in a statement that falling commodity prices and a sharp economic slowdown mean there is "a substantial risk of undershooting the inflation target."

A raft of miserable economic data Thursday underscored the severity of the slowdown gripping Western Europe. Spanish industrial output fell 8.8% in September compared with a year earlier. It is the fifth consecutive monthly fall, marking the longest period of decline since 2001, according to Spain's National Statistics Institute.

Weaker foreign demand and a falloff in capital-goods orders pushed manufacturing orders in Germany, Europe's largest economy, down by 8% in September from August, the steepest pace since records began in 1991.

New car registrations fell in October in all five major European car markets. New registrations were down 23% for the month in the U.K., 7.3% in France, 40% in Spain, 19% in Italy, and 8% in Germany, according to industry figures.

Mr. Trichet highlighted preliminary results from a new survey of bank loan officers, due Friday, showing that euro-zone banks nervous about the economic outlook continued to tighten credit standards in the third quarter, particularly to corporations. Still, Mr. Trichet said, "we see no credit crunch" currently in the euro-zone economy.