Obama's Victory Propelled by Support in Fast-Growing Suburbs
By Indira A.R. Lakshmanan
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Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama was propelled to victory by the fastest-growing segments of the U.S. electorate -- suburbanites, minorities and young voters.
Two-thirds of voters from 18 to 29 years old favored Obama, a 12 percentage-point increase from 2004's presidential vote. Obama also attracted votes from two out of three Hispanics, the fastest-growing demographic group, making the difference in Florida, Colorado and other states with significant Hispanic populations. More than 40 percent of Hispanics voted for President George W. Bush four years ago.
Communities that put the Democratic president-elect over the top in a half-dozen Republican-leaning and swing states -- Virginia, Florida and North Carolina in the South, Ohio and Pennsylvania in the industrial Rust Belt, and Colorado in the Rocky Mountain West -- say a lot about the changing face of the U.S. electorate.
``Suburbs at this point are the middle ground in America,'' said Robert Lang, director of Virginia Tech University's Metropolitan Institute in Alexandria. With ``a changing metropolitan population and a fast-growing one, they are barometers of where we're going.''
In a series of crucial states, Obama reversed historical Republican majorities in areas like the Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., and greatly expanded support in Democratic- leaning areas, such as suburban Philadelphia.
Metropolitan Values
Republican nominee John McCain and his running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, stumbled in suburbs with a message stressing ``small-town values,'' Lang said. Obama, meanwhile, campaigned hard and organized extensively in the big and small metropolitan areas where more than 90 percent of Americans live.
Obama got 52 percent of the vote in Virginia, which no Democrat had carried since 1964, by ``vastly outperforming'' his party's 2004 nominee John Kerry in fast-growing suburbs, noted Jared Leopold, communications director for the Virginia Democratic Party.
Obama bested Kerry's vote by as many as 10 percentage points in Loudoun and Prince William counties, outside Washington. The Democrat's last rally on election eve drew 90,000 people to Manassas, in Prince William.
In Florida, Obama's victory remade the political map in a state that, like Virginia, is changing from its traditional Southern roots by drawing more transplants from the North, more minority voters, and more immigrants. Anti-communist Cuban- Americans who were reliable Republican voters are no longer a majority among Florida's Hispanics -- who favored Obama by 57-42 percent over McCain.
Florida Shift
``We've seen Florida's electorate get more diverse and younger from 2004 to now,'' said Eric Jotkoff, spokesman for the Florida Democratic Party. ``There's a major shift among Hispanic voters this year, with registered Hispanic Democrats outnumbering registered Republicans in Florida for the first time ever.''
Obama beat Republican nominee John McCain by 18 points in Orange County, which surrounds Orlando, thanks in part to a growing Puerto Rican community that traditionally favors Democrats. Bush and Kerry split Orange County in 2004.
In North Carolina, Obama beat McCain by 15 percentage points in Wake County, home to commuters working in education, technology and medical jobs in the Raleigh/Durham area, where Bush had won.
In Mecklenburg County, which includes Charlotte and its suburbs, Obama beat McCain by 24 points four years after Kerry carried the county by just 4 points.
Philadelphia Suburbs
McCain devoted much of the campaign's final days to Pennsylvania, a Democratic state where he tried to win by increasing Republican strength in rural counties and staying even in suburbia. Four years ago, Kerry won narrow victories in Republican areas surrounding Philadelphia. Obama significantly outperformed Kerry in Delaware, Montgomery, Bucks and Chester counties.
In Ohio's Hamilton County, which includes Cincinnati, voters haven't supported a Democrat for president in 44 years. Obama won by 20,000 votes, 52 percent to 47 percent, a reversal of the 2004 spread between Bush and Kerry.
``In the suburbs of Hamilton County, the Republican message of social values and not talking about job loss didn't work,'' said John Hagner, targeting director for the Ohio Democratic Party.
Hispanic Votes
Out West, the Hispanic vote in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada grew between 5 and 9 percentage points from 2004, helping Obama win those states, according to exit polls. In Arapahoe County, east of Denver, Obama beat McCain 55 percent to 43 percent. Bush won the county by 3 points over Kerry.
Another group that's key to suburban success, college graduates, represented a majority of the U.S. electorate for the first time this year. Obama carried college-educated voters 53 percent to 45 percent for McCain.
``We certainly have seen some movement indicating perhaps an emerging Democratic majority,'' said Karlyn Bowman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. ``We won't know for two years whether this was simply a rejection of the status quo or an embrace of what Barack Obama was saying.''
Lang said Republicans relied on an outdated playbook that wasn't effective with growing groups of voters.
``Republicans picked a rural vice presidential candidate who talked about moose hunting. How many Americans go moose hunting?'' Lang asked. ``They won small towns, but the problem is not enough people live in small towns. America's new small towns are called suburbs.'' |
