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To: RetiredNow who wrote (75806)	11/7/2008 8:30:29 AM
From: JakeStraw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

With the housing, financial and now auto sector on life support you have to be very optimistic to think the economy will get better in six months...

To: RetiredNow who wrote (75806)	11/7/2008 11:54:07 AM
From: JakeStraw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

Goldman forecasting biggest rise in joblessness since WWII 10:56 AM ET, Nov 07, 2008 - By Rex Nutting marketwatch.com WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 8.5% by the end of next year and inch even higher in early 2010, economists for Goldman Sachs wrote Friday. The cumulative trough-to-peak increase of more than 4 percentage points in the jobless rate would be the most since World War II, they said. Goldman analysts lowered growth forecasts for the next three quarters, and said they now expect the Federal Reserve to cut its interest rate target to 0.50% by December. "The main reason for these changes is the accumulation of evidence that U.S. domestic demand and production are dropping sharply," they wrote. "We do not see a resumption of anything close to trend growth before 2010."

To: RetiredNow who wrote (75806)	11/26/2008 7:52:37 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

Very true. On the bright side of things, ECRI has been very good at predicting turning points. They were recently saying that this recession was going to last about 16 months and that we were already 10 months into that. So they were predicting a turnaround in the stock market soon in anticipation of that rebound from the recession. They said the recent implosion of commodities prices was a good indicator of a stock market bottom. I hope they are right. Just catching up with reading this thread. This statement in bold is 100% untrue. I speak or email with the Anirvan, Melinda and Lakshman at ECRI fairly regularly and have even published some articles for them on my blog.... they have in no way called for a bottom. In fact, their indicators are at the worst levels in the history of their indicators... some 60 years I think. From kirklindstrom.blogspot.com Nov 7: "The leading indicators are showing no light at the end of this tunnel. In the last week of October they registered their worst readings in their six decades of history. It tells you the economy's not just down, it's plunging. There is no end in sight to this recession." It is very true that they have an excellent record predicting turning points in the economy. Often the stock market is the most leading indicator in their WLI so the market going up (or down as it peaked before the recession started) is a good indicator of what ECRI's WLI may do. I've got a plot of ECRI WLI growth vs the DJIA somewhere... it is interesting to say the least. Anyway, NOW we are seeing a divergence of the stock market with the news... market up about 18% in a few days while the news (jobs and GDP growth) is getting worse. THAT is what you look for in a stock market bottom. If the WLI turns up and we can get some fiscal stimulus from the government, maybe in Jan, then we could end this recession sooner than many now think.