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To: Roads End who wrote (1975)	11/7/2008 11:17:21 AM
From: SockpuppetDoug	Respond to of 3209

I think you have to make a distinction between a non transparent event, like a derivatives crisis in which many counterparties are not even known and an election in which one candidate had led in 115 consecutive polls. The markets were and always are tracking liquidity. There were no surprises - at least, not to the market. Liquidity just vanished. I think a strong argument can be made that markets don't anticipate reduced liquidity - they adjust to it. stockcharts.com

To: Roads End who wrote (1975)	11/7/2008 11:41:06 AM
From: AllansAlias	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3209

Yes, I do believe that. If you do not believe, and it is your choice of course, that charts discount future events, then this is not the group you want to hang with. The fundamental thing about technical analysis, and to a greater extent Elliott, is that charts discount future events. If this is something you do not accept, we have no problem... just do not bring that discussion here please. When some of the charts were at their highs last year, they were bubbled on emerging markets and commodities. Long before the general market began to turn down, various important charts turned way down in anticipation of the coming storm. The most important of these would have been financials and housing. When this thread was started, the primary reason I started it was that I was of the opinion that things would get queer, and, well, they certainly have gotten queer. This was not a guess. This was based on charts. It does not always work, but it does not have to. It only has to work more than 50% of the time. The rest is your own psychology and money/trade management. Cheers