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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ratan lal who wrote (22624)	10/22/1997 11:49:00 AM
From: TREND1	Respond to of 53903

ratan you wrote: <<Correct me if I am wrong but isnt it true that 1. Supply outwieighs demand 2. Asians will (if allowed) dump products to keep factories running an people employed. 3. Asians have lower cost 4. Other cos. already have 64Meg in qty production 5. Memory prices are falling every week>>> ratan........so you want to be corrected !!!!!!!!!!!! (1) Supply outweighs demand .....Stupid statement !! SUPPLY=DEMAND where price is the equal sign. Your statement would lead to "stacks" of unused dram sitting around in piles in the world (g) ALL DRAM IS SOLD ! (2)You do not under stand "fixed" vs "varible" cost Talk ECON 101...It will show you that once you put out the one billion for the plant, you run it ! no matter what the cost of dram ! The life is about 3 years ! (3) Asians have lower cost....what costs ?....labor cost is not very important in a fab. It is the equipment cost ! I don't remember the exact number for Boise...but it is like $10- $12 per hour. Do you know that USA labor costs are now very competitive world wide ! (4) Other cos. already have 64Meg in qty production......Another meaningless statement. Right now the sweet spot in cost/Mbit is still 16Mb (5) Memory prices are falling every week......This is your most stupid...stupid...stupid...statement ! Dram prices are almost always dropping ! By the way ...the cost of production is always dropping ! IT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRICE OF DRAM AND COST OF DRAM that is IMPORTANT...and we just have to "guess" at this every qrt. ................................................................ So you wanted to be corrected ! And I am a "bigger bear" then Skeeter !!! Larry Dudash

To: ratan lal who wrote (22624)	10/22/1997 12:12:00 PM
From: DavidG	Respond to of 53903

Ratan, You said: << Asians will (if allowed) dump products to keep factories running an people employed. >> Asians will not be allowed to dump. Even though they want to employ their people it will only hurt asians companies. The US is very much aware of their activities. You said: << Asians have lower cost >> I am not sure this is true. And it has been acknowledged by Samsung, Toshiba, etc. You said: <<Other cos. already have 64Meg in qty production >> extraneous information since crossover has not occured, nor expected til next year. Besides MU produces 64mb and is probably waiting in the bushes to pounce on that market as they did with 1mb, 4mb, and 16 mb markets. You said: << Memory prices are falling every week >> This is also extraneous since memory prices are always falling and it is still a question as to how it effects MU. MU makes its sales thru contracts. In addition has increased its market share through the spot market preventing Asians from competing in US. The only ones that I see getting really hurt is the Asian Semi co.s fighting with each other outside the US on memory prices and will eventually cause them to cut back production further. The US is fully aware of this activity and will continue to fight this behavior and prevent that cancer from infecting the US. DavidG

To: ratan lal who wrote (22624)	10/22/1997 12:15:00 PM
From: Sridhar Srinivasan	Respond to of 53903

Ratan: I am delighted that you have exposed (sic) significant research data and info in what you state -g-. I am just far too obtuse to glean insights (and may be you can help me): Info on memory ASP and other mfrs (Taiwan, Korea etc.) is quite useful in determining the future of MU. Correct me if I am wrong but isnt it true that 1. Supply outwieighs demand 2. Asians will (if allowed) dump products to keep factories running an people employed. 3. Asians have lower cost 4. Other cos. already have 64Meg in qty production 5. Memory prices are falling every week I didnt like MU's last 10-K where they show $500 mil in Inventory and $500 mil in a/r. Bad management if not manipulation. Where do you find info on memory ASP for koreans and taiwanese manufacturers? Don't tell me spot prices reported by achilles is IT. 1. Supply outweighs demand - I think you mean there is a lot of memory available - but that has been the case for the last ten years (but for a brief period in 1995 when memory prices actually went up). 2 & 3. lower cost for what? do you have stats. MU is known to be one of the lowest cost producers if not the lowest cost producer (this is not a function of head count and per hour wages - it is a function of how much DRAM you can make out of a given wafer and the geometry used). 4. 64 Mb production - who needs them right now? You can talk about it when it is the predominant part - right now 16 Mb is where the action is. 5. And the sun does set every day. If Micron can cut their costs at a higher rate than the drop in chip prices, who comes out ahead? All your points provide little substantive insight about what the future holds. Best Regards, Sridhar

To: ratan lal who wrote (22624)	10/22/1997 12:37:00 PM
From: DavidG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Ratan, I do not know how people post so quickly, but I guess when they saw your post eveybody went nuts....but the fact is the thread might be getting upset with the untruths and misinformation that has been coming out and their frustrations are beginning to show. one other comment: YOU said: << I didnt like MU's last 10-K where they show $500 mil in Inventory and $500 mil in a/r. Bad management if not manipulation. I do not know that anyone on this thread has the knowledge to say MU is mismanaged or manipulative. There are many analysts out there that can better make that judgement and no one (other than on this thread ) has insinuated that. I would really not let that smoke cloud your judgement. In addition MUs price currently reflects the drop in Memory prices, and Asian competition and 64mb market( which is only 10%). Don't try to invest in MU or trade it for the wrong reasons it will eventually trap you. Good luck trading. DavidG PS: MU still holding in the 33- 36 range. Trade it smartly.

To: ratan lal who wrote (22624)	10/22/1997 4:57:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

ratan, let the bulls be upset. they'll be upset and call the bears lucky all the way to the teens. just add up how much money you would lose listening to them and how much money you made listening to the bears. :-) btw, it is shear amazement that falls over me when the bulls yap about mu's fundamentals when THE ONLY GOOD Q THEY HAD WAS DUE TO AN INVENTORY HOLDBACK! NO HOLDBACK, NO MONEY FOR MU! ALL YEAR LONG, NO MONEY. ALL THAT AFTER SPENDING $2.50 A SHARE ON EQUIPMENT AND OTHER NON PROFIT GENERATING CRAP! the 16 mb production is in the end game. you ever heard of closeout sales? well, we're in a fire sale right now. expect mu to complain to congress as they can't compete. unfortunately, 16 mb is their only gane in lieu of another $2 - $5 a share in capital expenditures. spend $5 to make $1, now that is an mu bulls favorite business plan. i really wonder what else they choose as investment "vehicles." btw, it is not you who are confused. i told the bulls incessently that mu was wqqqqy overvalued at and near $60. they couldn't see reason if it whacked them on the head. i even suggested buying puts to sridhar when mu was about $43-$45 to protect his long position. he declined. he would have made a lot of money on them. btw, the bulls were riding the bears like no tomorrow on the way up. boy it is fun on the way down. i now know how they felt. except my paradigm was right long term and their paradigm was wrong. this battle was won a long time ago, the only question was when. WE'RE GETTING CLOSE.