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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (14214)	11/8/2008 11:59:30 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 71402

nice theory!!

To: gregor_us who wrote (14214)	11/8/2008 1:34:36 PM
From: Amelia Carhartt	Respond to of 71402

Quite a post! It will be interesting to see how it works out. I certainly can't find anything not to believe.

To: gregor_us who wrote (14214)	11/8/2008 1:56:05 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 71402

<<There is going to be a solid commodity rally that is already stirring right now>> this rally will be very strong during the trend phase of USD down, imHo. As we know, commodities are EXTREMELY volatile to trend motion. Regards stirrings, i have noted the better miners are NOW outperforming the OVERALL market on Market Up Days. This was NOT case for quite sometime. Max

To: gregor_us who wrote (14214)	11/8/2008 7:26:19 PM
From: daveinmarinca	Respond to of 71402

"But starting late next Autumn, it will then head lower again into May of 2010, to an all time new low below 70.00."....i believe 68 is Jesse's target...most thought it would happen this fall....who would have guessed derivative deleveraging would be a $US supporting event delaying the fall....not me.....thanks for sharing your work.

To: gregor_us who wrote (14214)	11/9/2008 1:32:46 AM
From: Don Earl	3 Recommendations Respond to of 71402

RE: "this gargantuan supply of Treasury debt is indeed the thing that will break the USD. But ironically, it will not break the USD in real time." If what you mean by "real time" is right now, it might be worth considering the money isn't be distributed "right now". Programs are in place to distribute an unholy amount of money, but so far, most of what has gone out the door is targeted at propping up the dollar through currency swaps. The Fannie and Freddie bailout, that has been hyped as being $200 billion, was actually a Congressional blank check, limited only by the national debt cap, which Congress can raise any time it gets to feeling frisky, and did in fact raise by on the order of $1 trillion as part of that package. The debt cap was bumped again as part of the $700 bailout package. Another trillion went out the door in the currency swaps, and the FDIC is on the hook for another two trillion. I'm starting to lose track, but the total so far is somewhere between $4-5 trillion. However, the majority of that hasn't hit the market yet. What has hit the market is currently being held back by "friends". In the mean time, Russia and various Asian nations, including China, have been quietly been accumulating dollars for years, as a weapon to defend their own currencies. The public outrage at using taxpayer money to buy up all the bad paper from investment bankers is being circumvented by allowing the junk paper to be used as collateral for soon to be doled out fiat dollars. Most of what is going to slam the USD over the next several years is going to be substantially less than transparent to the general public. I think you have the right of it that the worst damage will take several years to realize, but I'd lean toward the idea that you will see the damage done in real time on the path to Armageddon.

To: gregor_us who wrote (14214)	11/9/2008 10:20:56 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71402

To the extent that the level of the dollar is the inverse of oil (and perhaps gold and food prices as well) this item may be significant: NEWS ALERT from The Wall Street Journal Nov. 9, 2008 China's government set plans for 4 trillion yuan, or $586 billion, in spending and stimulus measures through the end of 2010 aimed specifically to target people's livelihood in an effort to offset the impact of slowing global growth and unlock the spending power of its vast population. If some of the "spending power of its vast population" goes to bacon, gasoline, and to increasing a small stash of gold as an inflation hedge (instead of bank deposits and ultimately U. S. T-bonds), those items may rise in price and rise even faster with every downward tick of the dollar. That's the way I am going to bet, anyhow.

To: gregor_us who wrote (14214)	12/17/2008 11:39:52 PM
From: Fiscally Conservative	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71402

Will Oil participate in this coming commodity rally you foresee in 2009/2010 and beyond? My take on the Fed monetizing the debt incurred over the last 8 years,which was a huge factor in our positive GDP growth rates,(but that is another story)will end up hyper inflating everything in the US. The trick first is to allow the Fed to clean up the debt or at least give enough of an illusion that Uncle Sam has it all under control. Afterward they let the inflation hogs loose and sit back the next five years admiring how smart they were. Uncle Sam has only to do a very few things right so long he you doesn't do too many things wrong.