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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1982)	11/8/2008 1:01:51 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

I think the most enlightening information I've gleaned from this experience has been 1. While the Dow 30 had some holdouts that didn't cave until the very last leg down, they ALL cratered in the end. Every single one I've found charts for. Down 50% and more. We won't find stuff like DIS, PG, and MCD hanging in close to the highs while the market bottoms. Not likely given the historical precedent. 2. The ones that caved early just dragged along the bottom for the whole year while the rest of the market cratered around them. 3. This is the real biggie: the 1974 low was actually a retest of the 1970 low. And it failed briefly. This is the kind of behavior I had expected to see here, even before I closely examined the 1973-4 bear. A similar structure would have us retest the 2002 low, and break it if only briefly. Of course the market can do anything on any given day. We must all be positioned to accommodate any movement that should occur. However, given the historical precedent, I conclude the risk/reward continues to favor short positions, now targeting the strongest holdouts. (News to you, right Patron? <G>) Now I've got some historical data and charts to back up my suspicions. We should be lucky if this is no worse than a repeat of 1973-74. `BC

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1982)	11/14/2008 9:20:55 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

This won't be a headline when we hit "the" bottom: 8:47AM Charles Schwab reports monthly activity highlights; daily average trades were up 56% from Oct 2007 and up 25% from Sep 2008 (SCHW) 17.89 : SCHW releases Oct monthly activity; company highlights for the month of October 2008 include: 1) Net new assets brought to the company by new and existing clients in October 2008 totaled $6.6 bln. 2) Total client assets were $1.160 trillion as of month-end October, down 22% from October 2007 and down 11% from September 2008. 3) Client daily average trades were 498.2 thousand in October 2008, up 56% from October 2007 and up 25% from September 2008. `BC