Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE ANT who wrote (42544)	11/9/2008 12:15:36 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 217852

what went broke is the notion that there is a disconnect between the financial markets and the real world that financial engineering can insulate the real business world form the obvious dangers of the competitor, the unknown, the unexpected and more basic from the greed and thievery and swindle of so many that call themselves humans. IMHO it all started to fall down after realizing that nothing goes up to the sky if stock markets, commodity prices, debt availability, housing and any thing else. The concept started to crumble in the US but it spread around the world as every one piled into the same presumed growth whose seeds where planted over 15 years ago when the US got our of its first RE deflation with the help of printing money - after the Y2K event which was not so disastrous and recovery was on hand it generated a false perception that CB's will always know the way out to get the world out of trouble so going back to the fairy tales of Andersen this time the world CB's where those aproving of taylors qualifications <GGG>

To: THE ANT who wrote (42544)	11/9/2008 12:22:07 PM
From: Pogeu Mahone	Respond to of 217852

I agree. It is credit this time. Deflating faster and faster I suspect the peole below will soon be having their credit greatly reduced. Talking to a jewler at my club this morning his stores are doing financing at 22%. People going for it especially watches for around $1700. He says all these people should be buying $300 watches. People go crazy at Christmas. Look at this:From Calculated Risk Sunday, November 09, 2008 WSJ: $586 Billion Stimulus Package in China by CalculatedRisk on 11/09/2008 10:49:00 AM From the WSJ: China Announces $586 Billion Stimulus Package China's government announced a two-year stimulus exceeding a half-trillion dollars to offset the impact of slowing global growth ... Just a year ago, China had adopted an unprecedented "tight" monetary policy, a step up in its three-year effort to keep the fast-growing economy from barreling out of control because it was expanding too quickly. Professor Roubini cautioned last week about a hard landing in China (Note: Roubini argues that China's economy needs to grow at more than 6% per year to absorb the about 24 million workers joining the labor force every year): The Rising Risk of a Hard Landing in China: The Two Engines of Global Growth – U.S. and China – are Now Stalling In conclusion the risk of a hard landing in China is sharply rising; a deceleration in the Chinese growth rate to 7% in 2009 - just a notch above a 6% hard landing – is highly likely and an even worse outcome cannot be ruled out at this point. The global economy is already headed towards a global recession as advanced economies are all in a recession and the U.S. contraction is now dramatically accelerating. The first engine of global growth – the U.S. on the consumption side – has now already shut down. The second engine of global growth – China on the production side – is also on its way to stalling. Thus, with the two main engines of global growth now in serious trouble a global hard landing is now almost a certainty. And a hard landing in China will have severe effects on growth in emerging market economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America as Chinese demand for raw materials and intermediate inputs has been a major source of economic growth for emerging markets and commodity exporters. The sharp recent fall in commodity prices and the near collapse of the Baltic Freight index are clear signals that Chinese and global demand for commodities and industrial inputs is sharply falling. Thus, global growth – at market prices – will be close to zero in Q3 of 2008, likely negative in Q4 of 2009 and well into negative territory in 2009. So brace yourself for an ugly and protracted global economic contraction in 2009. Posted by CalculatedRisk on 11/09/2008 10:49:00 AM Comments (134)