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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (279740)	11/10/2008 2:00:15 AM
From: KLP	Respond to of 793900

Stratfor….preview of what to look for this Nov 9, 2008 week… Editor’s Note: The following is an internal Stratfor document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus. Free Preview of Members-Only Content To view the requested intelligence, you must be a Stratfor.com member. 1. The U.S. presidential transition begins: Between the crises in Iraq, negotiations with Iran, the war in Afghanistan, the slow-motion disintegration of Pakistan and Russia’s resurgence, U.S. President-elect Barack Obama is going to have his plate full on Jan. 20, 2009. In reality, it is full now. The Russians in particular are pulling out all the stops to impose a reality on the incoming American president. This means that unless Obama plans on letting the Russians ride roughshod over their near abroad, he not only needs to come up with a counterpolicy quickly, he needs to work with the outgoing administration to implement that policy well before Inauguration Day. That will require Obama and his team getting up to speed on not just Central Europe and the former Soviet Union, but also on Iraq and Pakistan — locations he needs to have at least partially locked down if he is to have a free hand to deal with Moscow. Our sources tell us that the Obama team was requesting recommendations from the Bush team less than 24 hours after the election results were made official. This is going to be the fastest transition in history — and it needs to be. Obama’s presidency will, for all practical purposes, commence next week. So watch, record and — above all else — probe accordingly. 2. The global financial summit: Obama’s first act as “president” will be to attend (so far in an unofficial role) the global financial summit Nov. 15 in Washington, where the Europeans will attempt to force a European-style financial management program on the American system. Obama may be more willing to hear the Europeans out on the topic than the Bush administration, but he is not going to give away the farm — certainly not so long as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke are advising both Bush and Obama. (This goes doubly so for Bernanke, since the Fed chairman does not serve at the president’s pleasure; he will survive the transition’s head-chopping regardless.) We need to investigate to find out specifically what the Europeans are going to ask for at the summit — and what they plan to bring to the table in exchange.